Movies of the Output from Coupled and Uncoupled Climate Model Experiments
(SRES A2 scenario)
(SRES A2 scenario)
(SRES A1B scenario)
Three indicators of climate change over Canada are shown.
1) Sea-ice: Bright white is pack-ice (or multiyear ice) which is ice that survives through the summer. The Canadian Archipelago would appear to become ice free in the summer sometime in the next 20 to 30 years and most of the Arctic would be summer ice free by the end of the century.
2) Forests: Changes in colour over land show areas where the concentration of conifers (evergreen trees) increases (green) or decreases (orange) compared to 1850. Early on in the simulation decreases in conifers are mostly due to clearing for agriculture (as in the Saint Lawrence region). After 1990 any changes are just due just to climate change. By the end of the simulation some areas in the Maritimes show a decline in conifers but here the model is predicting replacement by deciduous trees. Other areas, as in northern Manitoba and Alberta, show an expansion of the prairie. At the end of the simulation much of the boreal forest shows increased growth, mostly due of the increased level of CO2.
3) Air Temperature: Surface air temperature change from 1850 is shown by isotherms (lines of constant temperature change since 1850). The average temperature change over Canada is shown in the legend isotherm. Warming is more severe in the north and over land. Many of the new isotherms originate over areas where ice is disappearing, illustrating the importance of the ice-albedo feedback. For this simulation the temperature change over Canada by 2100 is about 5.6 C while globally the change is only about 2.5 C, so Canada will see more than twice the global average change.
For clarity only smoothed changes to annual averages are shown. Climate change will be much more variable. This is a 21 MB Quicktime movie. A 73 MB higher resolution version is also available.
Response of sea surface temperature to changes in North Atlantic
meridional overturning in the UVic coupled model. The model was forced with changes in surface freshwater fluxes in the
North Atlantic. Note the interesting response in the southern hemisphere.
Projected Arctic sea ice loss due to global warming in the 21st century
These movies show projected Arctic sea ice thinning in response to global warming
in the 21st century using an early version of the UVic coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model
and a highly-idealized emissions scenario.
The movies show annual or summer averages of the Arctic sea ice thickness from 2000 to
Annual or Summer
Equatorial Response to North Pacific Temperature Anomaly
This movie shows the equatorial response to a North Pacific sea surface
temperature perturbation (SST). A global ocean general circulation model
was spun up with annual-mean climatological SSTs and sea surface salinities
used as a restoring boundary condition. Once the ocean-only model reached
equilibrium, a 2 Degree Celcius warm SST anomaly was added to the restoring
boundary condition north of 30 Deg in the Pacific. The movie shows yearly
snapshots of the cross equatorial Pacific potential temperature field over
the total of 100 years of integration.
Arctic Potential Temperature Anomaly at 700 m
This movie shows the subsurface Arctic Ocean response
to increasing radiative forcing associated with increasing
anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The concentration of atmospheric CO2 was
increased at a rate of 1% per year (similar to IPCC Business as Usual)
in our coupled
energy moisture balance atmosphere/thermodynaic ice/ocean general circulation
model. The intriguing Arctic intrusion of subsurface warm water is not
present at the surface (which retains winter ice cover and hence the ocean
SST remains close to the freezing point) and is qualitatively consistent with
recent observations in the region. The movie shows 300 years of results
(CO2 was increased for the first 70 years and then remained fixed at
2x present CO2 levels) with each snapshot at 5 year intervals.
The results are described in:
Global Zonally-Averaged Potential Change in a Global Warming Experiment
Global zonally-averaged potential temperature change from the same experiment
as that described under the Arctic potential temperature anomaly header. This
movie shows the regions where the ocean is taking up heat and sequestering it
to the deep ocean.
Animation of Global Sea Level Rise to 70 m Above Present
Using the GLOBE dataset a simple animation of global sea level rise
was created by progressively submerging land connected directly to the
global ocean. This is a 12 MB movie that is best viewed by
downloading the file to your system and using Quicktime (or some other