Climate Modelling Group
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences

Climate Research Network

Collaborative Research Agreement at the University of Victoria

on Behalf of the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies and Environment Canada

(CICS Arctic)

Progress Report:

October 1, 2001

This progress report is available on the world wide web at:

http://climate.uvic.ca/projects/CCC-Arctic-Progress5.html

1: Principal Investigator

Andrew Weaver

2: Co-Investigators

Ed Carmack, Greg Flato, Lawrence Mysak

3: Institution

School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria

PO Box 3055, Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6

4: Research Progress

This progress report will briefly discuss research conducted during the third year of financial support from the MSC/CICS Arctic Node of the Canadian Climate Research Network. The McGill component of this project received a transfer of $40,000 in May 2001. This represents the last transfer as the McGill sea ice modelling effort, lead by Lawrence Mysak, will be funded off the NSERC/CFCAS CLIVAR collaborative grant effective 2002. Ms. Anne Armstrong, an MSc student working under the supervision of Lawrence Mysak, successfully defended her thesis (A. Weaver was her external examiner) during this period. Dr. Mysak also published a Science Perspectives piece in August 2001 (Mysak, L.A., 2001: Patterns of Arctic Circulation, Science, 293, 1269-1270).

Each person listed below is funded either in whole or in part off the CICS Arctic Grant. At the end of this brief report, a list of paper is provided which have been funded in whole or in part by the CICS Arctic grant to date.

4.1 Researchers funded from CICS Arctic Grant

Oleg Saenko

The primary initial objective of Oleg's work was to provide a new, `state-of-the-art' sea ice component for potential use in the CCCma global climate model. This work proceeded in a systematic manner:

In addition to these activities related to CCCma coupled model development, a suite of sea-ice diagnostic programs has been developed (by G. Flato) to analyze sea-ice results from climate models. These analysis programs have been used in the comparison of two versions of the CCCma coupled model (initial results in Flato and Boer, 2001), and in the analysis of coupled model results submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project [initial results in the IPCC Third Assessment Report and in Flato (2001)].

Dr. Saenko has worked on numerous other projects in parallel with the above tasks which have lead to several publication noted in section 5.

References:

Bitz, C.M. and W.H. Lipscomb, An energy-conserving thermodynamic model of sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 15,669-15,677, 1999.

Bitz, C.M., M.M. Holland, A.J. Weaver, and M. Eby, Simulating the ice-thickness distribution in a coupled climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 2441-2463, 2001.

Duffy, P.B., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, Effects of sinking of salt rejected during formation of sea ice on results of a global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1739-1742, 1999.

Duffy, P.B., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, Climate model simulations of effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and loss of sea ice on ocean salinity and tracer uptake. J. Climate, 14, 520-532, 2001

Flato, G.M., Sea Ice Modelling. Part 2 of a chapter to appear in ‘Mass Balance of the Cryosphere’, J. Bamber and A. Payne (eds.), Cambridge U. Press, in preparation, 2001.

Flato, G.M. and G.J. Boer, Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(1),195-198, 2001.

Flato, G.M. and W.D. Hibler III, Modeling pack ice as a cavitating fluid. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 626-651, 1992.

Hunke, E.C. and J.K. Dukowicz, An elastic-viscous-plastic model for sea ice dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, 1849-1867, 1997.

Lipscomb, W.H., Remapping the thickness distribution in sea ice models. J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2001.

Saenko, O., G.M. Flato and A.J. Weaver, Towards the improvement of the sea ice component of the CCCma coupled model, submitted to Atmosphere-Ocean, 2001

Harper Simmons

Dr. Harper Simmons is funded by an NSF International Research Fellowship, a grant from the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska, as well as the CICS Arctic grant. Dr. Simons has worked on developing new parametrisations for ocean mixing and geothermal heating. He has taken a Research Scientist position at IARC and will relocate to Fairbanks later this year. We expect several collaborative papers will arise from his work at UVic.

Gilles Arfeuille

Gilles Arfeuille has submitted his MSc thesis entitled: On the freshwater transport through the southwest Canadian Arctic Archipelago due to buoyancy and wind forcing. He will defend his thesis in December of this year. His thesis abstract is:

The freshwater input from the Arctic into the North Atlantic is an important component of the global climate system through its effects on deepwater formation. Part of this freshwater is transported through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) via sea ice and low density surface water, where it is able to set up buoyancy boundary currents (BBCs). To infer the existence of freshwater transport via BBCs in the southwest CAA, data are examined from summer cruises conducted in 1995, 1999, and 2000. The hydrographic data are supplemented with traditional knowledge relevant to this study. The presence, predominantly on the south side of channels, of driftwood originating from the Mackenzie River confirms an eastward transport through the region. The hydrographic data also show that the southwest CAA is relatively fresh compared to surrounding regions, and that the sources of buoyancy forcing are large and from different origins. The presence of BBCs on both sides of the channels appears to be a frequent occurrence with, as shown in previous work, the fresher water being more often present on the south shore. Some data from the summer 2000 show a different feature with much fresher water on the north side. A subsequent strong wind event creates a complete reversal of this situation, setting up a strong cross-channel horizontal salinity gradient and an amplified BBC on the south shore. In this region, buoyancy and wind forcing act together to force an eastward freshwater transport in the southwest CAA.

Julie Bacle

Julie Bacle is a PhD student working under the supervision of Andrew Weaver and Eddy Carmack. Her interest is the characterization of water mass interactions for the Baffin Bay region. This implies a complete reconnaissance of the physical and geochemical water column structures of the region, as well as an analysis of their sources, pathways of flow, and modifications en route. The data being examined consist of selected historical hydrographic (CTD) and geochemical profile data collected between 1980 and 1999 through various agencies (including DFO, NOAA, DMI). Specific topics of interest include 1) the origin and mixing history of the Atlantic-derived inflow into Baffin Bay, 2) the components and mixing history of Baffin Current throughflow, and 3) the mechanisms behind Baffin Bay Deep Water formation and their importance in the global heat/salt/solubility pump.

Jacqueline Dumas

The goal of Jacqueline’s project is to look at the seasonal and annual cycle of air temperature, wind speed, cloud amount, relative humidity, water equivalent of snow stake measurements, and long and shortwave radiation for six sections in the Arctic region. Each section’s seasonal and annual trends and changes through time will be studied and then compared with other sections. The 37-year mean of each section will then be compared. These results will be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index and the cyclonic/anticyclonic circulation regimes, hereafter referred to as CACR, defined by Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997). The correlation will hopefully give insight on the influence of these patterns in the central Arctic. They could also provide a link between the NAO and CACR.

Reference:

Proshutinsky, A.Y. and Johnson, M.A., 1997, Two Circulation Regimes of the Wind-driven Arctic Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.102, No C6, Pages 12,493-12,514, June 15, 1997

Hannah Hickey

Hannah Hickey holds an NSERC PGSA award and has just started her MSc (September 2001) under the supervision of A. Weaver and Greg Flato.

Linda Waterman

Linda Waterman has developed a version of the UVic Earth Climate System model, which includes a higher resolution (45 vertical levels) ocean general circulation model (OGCM) for mixing process studies in the Arctic region. Early analysis indicates that the modelled sea-ice cover in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea (GIN) region is highly sensitive to the parameterization of vertical mixing in the upper ocean. This sensitivity has an important remotely forced component. Increasing the OGCM resolution, whilst maintaining the existing constant vertical mixing, greatly reduced the Gulf Stream extension into the high North Atlantic and subsequently, the Norwegian Current. The Gulf Stream extension appears to be highly sensitive to the choice of vertical mixing physics. Preliminary experiments with a simple bulk mixed layer scheme based on that of Price et al. (1978), indicates that the Gulf Stream extension remotely controls sea-ice concentration and thickness in the GIN region. Experiments in progress include more realistic physical models of vertical mixing, based on analogue models of the atmospheric boundary layer (e.g. the KPP parameterization of Large et al. (1994)). This experimental sequence promises to elucidate the important mixing variables which regulate the Gulf Stream extension and its control on Arctic climate.

References:

Price, J. F., C. N. K. Mooers, and J. C. Van Leer, Observation and simulation of storm-induced mixed-layer deepening, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 8, 582-599, 1978.

Large, W. G., J. C. McWilliams, and S. C. Doney, Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization, Rev. Geophys., 32, 363-403, 1994.

5. Publications for Weaver since the beginning of CICS Arctic funding in 1999.

(Those numbers in bold indicated publications supported by the CICS Arctic/Variability Projects)

1. Weaver, A.J., C.M. Bitz, A.F. Fanning and M.M. Holland, 1999: Thermohaline circulation: High latitude phenomena and the difference between the Pacific and Atlantic. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 27, 231—285.

2. National Research Council, 1999: Global Ocean Science: Toward an Integrated Approach. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 165pp.

3. Weaver, A.J., 1999: Extratropical subduction and decadal modulation of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 743—746.

4. Huck, T., A. Colin de Verdière and A.J. Weaver, 1999: Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in box-ocean models forced by fixed surface fluxes. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 29, 865—892.

5. Huck, T., A.J. Weaver and A. Colin de Verdière, 1999: On the influence of the parameterisation of lateral boundary layers on the thermohaline circulation in coarse-resolution ocean models. Journal of Marine Research, 57, 387—426.

6. Duffy, P.B., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 1999: Effects of sinking of salt rejected during formation of sea ice on results of a global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 1739-1742.

7. Poussart, P.F., A.J. Weaver and C.R. Barnes, 1999: Late Ordovician glaciation under high atmospheric CO2: A coupled model analysis. Paleoceanography, 14, 542—558.

8. Weaver, A.J., 1999: Millennial timescale variability in ocean/climate models. In: Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales. Webb R.S., P.U. Clark, and L.D. Keigwin Eds., American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph Vol. 112, Washington, D.C., pp. 285—300.

9. Wiebe, E.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1999: On the sensitivity of global warming experiments to the parametrisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing. Climate Dynamics, 15, 875—893.

10. Weaver, A.J. and E.C. Wiebe, 1999: On the sensitivity of projected oceanic thermal expansion to the parameterisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 3461—3464.

11. Holland, M.M., A.J. Brasket and A.J. Weaver, 2000: The impact of rising atmospheric CO2 on low frequency North Atlantic climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 1519—1522.

12. Weaver, A.J., P.B. Duffy, M. Eby and E.C. Wiebe, 2000: Evaluation of ocean and climate models using present-day observations and forcing. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38, 271—301.

13. Stone, D.A., A.J. Weaver and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38, 321—347.

14. Flato, G.M., G.J. Boer, W.G. Lee, N.A. McFarlane, D. Ramsden, M.C. Reader and A.J. Weaver, 2000: The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate. Climate Dynamics, 16, 451—467.

15. Rutter, N.W., A.J. Weaver, D. Rokosh, A.F. Fanning and D.G. Wright, 2000: Data-model comparison of the Younger Dryas event. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 37, 811—830.

16. Weaver, A.J., and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Uncertainty in climate change Nature, 407, 571-572.

17. Zwiers, F.W., and A. J. Weaver, 2000: The causes of 20th century warming, Science, 290, 2081-2082.

18. Weaver, A.J. and H. Raptis, 2001: Gender differences in introductory atmospheric and oceanic science exams: Multiple choice versus constructed response questions. Journal of Science Education and Technology, 10, 115-126.

19. Duffy, P.B., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Climate model simulations of effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and loss of sea ice on ocean salinity and tracer uptake. Journal of Climate, 14, 520—532.

20. Bitz, C.M., M.M. Holland, A.J. Weaver and M. Eby, 2001: Simulating the ice-thickness distribution in a coupled climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 2441—2463.

21. Schmittner, A. and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Dependence of multiple climate states on ocean mixing parameters. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1027—1030.

22. Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 2001: The role of ice ocean interactions in the variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Journal of Climate, 14, 656—675.

23. Hillaire-Marcel, C., A. de Vernal, G. Bilodeau and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Absence of deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea during the last interglacial period. Nature, 410, 1073—1077.

24. Yoshimori, M., A.J. Weaver, S.J. Marshall and G.K.C. Clarke, 2001: Glacial termination: Sensitivity to orbital and CO2 forcing in a coupled climate system model. Climate Dynamics, 17, 571-588.

25. McAvaney, B.J., C. Covey, S. Joussaume, V. Kattsov, A. Kitoh, W. Ogana, A.J. Pitman, A.J. Weaver, R.A. Wood, and Z.-C. Zhao, 2001: Model evaluation. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, pp. 471—523.

26. Stone, D.A., A.J. Weaver and R.J. Stouffer, 2001: Projection of climate change onto modes of atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate, 14, 3551—3565.

- Refereed Publications (in press)

27.Weaver, A.J., M. Eby, E. C. Wiebe, C. M. Bitz, P. B. Duffy, T. L. Ewen, A. F. Fanning, M. M. Holland, A. MacFadyen, H. D. Matthews, K. J. Meissner, O. Saenko, A. Schmittner, H. Wang and M. Yoshimori, 2001: The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model description, climatology and application to past, present and future climates. Atmosphere-Ocean, in press.

28. Saenko, O., G. M. Flato and A. J. Weaver, 2001: Improved representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Atmosphere-Ocean, in press.

29. Yoshimori, M., M.C. Reader, A.J. Weaver and N.A. MacFarlane, 2001: On the causes of glacial inception at 116KaBP. Climate Dynamics, in press.

30. Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz and A.J. Weaver, 2001: The influence of sea ice physics on simulations of climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research, in press.

31. Claussen, M., L. A. Mysak, A. J. Weaver, M. Crucifix, T. Fichefet, M.-F. Loutre, S. L. Weber, J. Alcamo, V.A. Alexeev, A. Berger, R. Calov, A. Ganopolski, H. Goosse, G. Lohman, F. Lunkeit, I.I. Mohkov, V. Petoukhov, P. Stone and Z. Wang, 2001: Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models. Climate Dynamics, in press.

32. Schmittner, A., K.J. Meissner, M. Eby and A. J. Weaver, 2001: Forcing of the deep ocean circulation in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanography, in press.

33. Saenko, O., and A. J. Weaver, 2001: Importance of wind-driven sea ice motion for the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water in a global climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, in press.

34. Meissner, K.J., A. Schmittner, E.C. Wiebe and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Simulations of Heinrich Events in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model. Geophysical Research Letters, in press.

- Refereed Publications (submitted)

35. McLaughlin, F. E. Carmack, R. Macdonald, A.J. Weaver and J. Smith, 2001: The Canada Basin 1989-1995: Upstream events and far-field effects of the Barents Sea branch. Journal of Geophysical Research., submitted.

36. de Vernal, A., C. Hillaire-Marcel, W.R. Peltier and A.J. Weaver, 2001: The structure of the upper water column in the northwest North Atlantic: Modern vs. last glacial maximum conditions. Paleoceanography, submitted.

37. Schmittner, A., M. Yoshimori and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Instability of glacial climate in an Earth System climate model. Science, submitted.

38. Clark, P.U., N.G. Pisias, T.F. Stocker, and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Abrupt climate change. Nature, submitted.

39. McBean, G.A., A.J. Weaver and N. Roulet, 2001: The Science of Climate Change – What do we know? ISUMA: Canadian Journal of Policy Research, submitted.

40. Saenko, O.A., E.C. Wiebe, and A.J. Weaver, 2001: North Atlantic response to the above-normal export of sea-ice from the Arctic. J. Geophys. Res., Submitted.

41. Arfeuille, G., E.C. Carmack, and A.J. Weaver, 2001: On the freshwater transport through the southwest Canadian Arctic Archipelago due to buoyancy and wind forcing. Arctic, submitted.




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