Climate Modelling Group
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences

Climate Research Network

Collaborative Research Agreement at the University of Victoria

on Behalf of the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies and Environment Canada

(CICS–Arctic)


Progress Report:

November 17, 2003


This progress report is available on the world wide web at:

http://wikyonos.seos.uvic.ca/projects/CCC-Arctic-Progress7.html


1: Principal Investigator


Andrew Weaver


2: Co-Investigators


Ed Carmack, Greg Flato


3: Institution


School of Earth & Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria

PO Box 3055, Victoria, BC, V8W 3P6


4: Research Progress


This progress report will briefly discuss research conducted during the 2002–2003 year of financial support from the MSC/CICS Arctic Node of the Canadian Climate Research Network.


This report will discuss only that research which has been completed since October 2002. The research discussed below is funded either in whole or in part off the CICS Arctic Grant. At the end of this brief report, a list of papers is provided which have been funded in whole or in part by the CICS Arctic grant to date.


Funding from CICS Arctic is still being used to pay the salaries of Linda Waterman and Julie Lobb, both PhD students that will finish in about 18 months. Funding is also being used to support Tessa Sou who is doing an MSc under the supervision of Greg Flato.


4.1 Selected Research funded from CICS Arctic Grant


20th century change in the Sea of Okhotsk and it implications for the North Pacific.


Russian data from five cruises during the period 1949 to 1952 are compared with observations taken during the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) P1W in 1993 to examine changes which may have occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk during the latter half of the last century. A basin-wide warming (0.1°–0.3°C) and freshening (0.05–0.1 psu) of the Sea of Okhotsk was found to have occurred over the latter part of the 20th century. Since the Sea of Okhotsk is thought to be the major source for North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW), calculations were made to determine whether or not these changes in the Sea of Okhotsk water properties were consistent with evidence of large-scale freshening of intermediate waters in the North Pacific. From several Okhotsk-to-Pacific salt flux calculations, we conclude that the Sea of Okhotsk was capable of causing the freshening noted in the NPIW over the past half century under certain assumed outflow conditions.


Published in: Hill, K.L., A.J. Weaver, H.J. Freeland and A. Bychkov, 2003: Evidence of change in the Sea of Okhotsk: Implications for the North Pacific. Atmosphere-Ocean, 41, 49–63.


Internal tide driven mixing in a model of the oceanic general circulation


Astronomical data reveals that approximately 3.5 terawatts (TW) of tidal energy is dissipated in the ocean. Tidal models and satellite altimetry suggest that 1 TW of this energy is converted from the barotropic to internal tides in the deep ocean, predominantly around regions of rough topography such as mid-ocean ridges. A global tidal model is used to compute turbulent energy levels associated with the dissipation of internal tides, and the diapycnal mixing supported by this energy flux is computed using a simple parameterization.


The mixing parameterization has been incorporated into a coarse resolution numerical model of the global ocean. This parameterization offers an energetically consistent and practical means of improving the representation of ocean mixing processes in climate models. Novel features of this implementation are that the model explicitly accounts for the tidal energy source for mixing, and that the mixing evolves both spatially and temporally with the model state. At equilibrium, the globally averaged diffusivity profile ranges from 0.3 cm2s-1 at thermocline depths to 7.7 cm2s-1 in the abyss with a depth average of 0.9 cm2s-1, in close agreement with inferences from global balances. Water properties are strongly influenced by the combination of weak mixing in the main thermocline and enhanced mixing in the deep ocean. Climatological comparisons show that the parameterized mixing scheme results in a substantial reduction of temperature/salinity bias relative to model solutions with either a uniform vertical diffusivity of 0.9 cm2 s-1 or a horizontally uniform bottom-intensified arctangent mixing profile. This suggests that spatially varying bottom intensified mixing is an essential component of the balances required for the maintenance of the ocean's abyssal stratification.


Published in: Simmons, H.L., S.R. Jayne, L.C. St. Laurent and A.J. Weaver, 2004: Tidally driven mixing in a numerical model of the ocean general circulation. Ocean Modelling, in press.


Structure and mixing across an Arctic/Atlantic front in northern Baffin Bay


A front forms in northern Baffin Bay (~75.25°N) between Atlantic-derived water carried by the West Greenland Current and Arctic-derived waters exiting southward through Nares Strait and Jones Sound via the Baffin Current. Subsurface waters (e.g. below 100 m) of the West Greenland Current are as much as 2°C warmer than those of the Baffin Current. Confluence of these waters leads to a frontal transition between 100–500 m wherein cross-frontal gradients of potential temperature (/L ~ 0.06–0.07 °C·km-1) and salinity (S/L ~ 0.005–0.007 psu·km-1) are largely density compensating (theta/L ~ 0.001 km-1). Subsequent thermohaline interleaving establishes conditions conducive to mixing via cabelling and double-diffusion. The front's location would allow it to play a contributing role in the formation of Baffin Current water structure and eventual export of freshwater to the North Atlantic.


Published in: Lobb, J., A.J. Weaver, E.C. Carmack and R.G. Ingram, 2003: Structure and mixing across an Arctic/Atlantic front in northern Baffin Bay. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(16), 1833, doi:10.129/2003GL017755.


The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of Arctic multi-year sea ice


A 1-D thermodynamic sea ice model, forced with North Pole Drift Station observations from 1954–91, is used to study the effect of changing atmospheric forcing on multi-year Arctic sea ice. From 1954–70, most seasons show positive trends in calculated sea ice thickness over much of the Arctic. A dip in calculated ice thickness takes place between 1971–77 over most of the Arctic. Following the North Pacific regime shift in 1976–1977, the period 1978–91 reveals large negative trends in calculated sea ice thickness in all seasons. The results indicate that an important part of the variability and trends in Arctic sea ice thickness is thermodynamically-driven. Of the total variance in multi-year sea ice thickness, 10 to 20% is explained by variations in the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific North American patterns. The multi-year ice thickness response to a positive wintertime Arctic Oscillation anomaly occurs the following summer and persists for more than a year.


Published in: Dumas, J.A., G.M. Flato, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of Arctic multi-year sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(18), 1918, doi:10.1029/2003GL017433.


North Atlantic Response to the Above-Normal Export of Sea Ice from the Arctic


The response of the thermohaline circulation (THC), as well as the freshwater and heat budgets of the northern North Atlantic, to above-normal sea ice export from the Arctic are examined using a global model. The model is not constrained by either open boundary conditions or prescribed atmospheric air temperature and humidity. Two sets of experiments are presented: the transient and the persistent above-normal ice export. In the transient case, ice export is increased by a factor of 2 for one to five years. Our century-long simulations do not support the notion that the simulated climate may switch to a new quasi-equilibrium under such perturbations. Rather, in response to the transient positive ice export anomalies, the overturning circulation first slows down, but then almost completely recovers 15-20 years after the perturbation is removed. However, the budgets of freshwater and heat continue to evolve for up to 40 years in this case. When the simulated North Atlantic freshening reaches a magnitude comparable to that during the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA), the strength of overturning and heat transport from subtropical to subpolar North Atlantic reduce by no more then 5%. We show that in order to generate a previously reported decrease of overturning and heat transport by as much as 20%, the doubled ice export must be sustained for at least 5 years. This would result in a North Atlantic freshening more than 3 times larger than that estimated for the GSA event. In the case of a persistent above-normal export of sea ice from the Arctic, the THC also does not collapse, at least within the range of the ice export increase (1.5 to 3 times) used here. Rather, after about 15-20 years the overturning begins to recove. The stability of the overturning to the persistent above-normal export of sea ice from the Arctic appears to be due to two processes, operating on a decadal time scale of 15-20 years. First, the internal (to the coupled system) redistribution of freshwater between the Arctic and North Atlantic, associated with the enhanced export of sea ice, makes the North Atlantic fresher and Arctic Ocean saltier. This, if persistent, decreases the amount of freshwater leaving the Arctic towards the North Atlantic in a liquid form. Second, because the overturning circulation does not collapse, the freshwater anomaly propagates downward within the region of deep water formation, removing the excess of buoyancy from the surface ocean. Also, the use of active atmospheric component is important for stabilizing the overturning circulation.


Published in: Saenko, O.A., E.C. Wiebe, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: North Atlantic response to the above-normal export of sea-ice from the Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(C7), 17–1:17–13, 3224, doi:10.1029/2001JC001166. .


5. Publications for Weaver since the beginning of CICS Arctic funding in 1999.

1999:

53. Weaver, A.J., C.M. Bitz, A.F. Fanning and M.M. Holland, 1999: Thermohaline circulation: High latitude phenomena and the difference between the Pacific and Atlantic. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 27, 231–285.

54. National Research Council, 1999: Global Ocean Science: Toward an Integrated Approach. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 165pp.

55. Weaver, A.J., 1999: Extratropical subduction and decadal modulation of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 743–746.

56. Huck, T., A. Colin de Verdière and A.J. Weaver, 1999: Interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in box-ocean models forced by fixed surface fluxes. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 29, 865–892.

57. Huck, T., A.J. Weaver and A. Colin de Verdière, 1999: On the influence of the parameterisation of lateral boundary layers on the thermohaline circulation in coarse-resolution ocean models. Journal of Marine Research, 57, 387–426.

58. Duffy, P.B., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 1999: Effects of sinking of salt rejected during formation of sea ice on results of a global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 1739-1742.

59. Poussart, P.F., A.J. Weaver and C.R. Barnes, 1999: Late Ordovician glaciation under high atmospheric CO2: A coupled model analysis. Paleoceanography, 14, 542–558.

60. Weaver, A.J., 1999: Millennial timescale variability in ocean/climate models. In: Mechanisms of Global Climate Change at Millennial Time Scales. Webb R.S., P.U. Clark, and L.D. Keigwin Eds., American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph Vol. 112, Washington, D.C., pp. 285–300.

61. Wiebe, E.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1999: On the sensitivity of global warming experiments to the parametrisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing. Climate Dynamics, 15, 875–893.

62. Weaver, A.J. and E.C. Wiebe, 1999: On the sensitivity of projected oceanic thermal expansion to the parameterisation of sub-grid scale ocean mixing. Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 3461–3464.

2000:

63. Holland, M.M., A.J. Brasket and A.J. Weaver, 2000: The impact of rising atmospheric CO2 on low frequency North Atlantic climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 1519–1522.

64. Weaver, A.J., P.B. Duffy, M. Eby and E.C. Wiebe, 2000: Evaluation of ocean and climate models using present-day observations and forcing. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38, 271–301.

65. Stone, D.A., A.J. Weaver and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38, 321–347.

66. Flato, G.M., G.J. Boer, W.G. Lee, N.A. McFarlane, D. Ramsden, M.C. Reader and A.J. Weaver, 2000: The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate. Climate Dynamics, 16, 451–467.

67. Rutter, N.W., A.J. Weaver, D. Rokosh, A.F. Fanning and D.G. Wright, 2000: Data-model comparison of the Younger Dryas event. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 37, 811–830.

68. Weaver, A.J., and F.W. Zwiers, 2000: Uncertainty in climate change Nature, 407, 571-572.

69. Zwiers, F.W., and A. J. Weaver, 2000: The causes of 20th century warming, Science, 290, 2081-2082.

2001:

70. Weaver, A.J. and H. Raptis, 2001: Gender differences in introductory atmospheric and oceanic science exams: Multiple choice versus constructed response questions. Journal of Science Education and Technology, 10, 115-126.

71. Duffy, P.B., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Climate model simulations of effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and loss of sea ice on ocean salinity and tracer uptake. Journal of Climate, 14, 520–532.

72. Bitz, C.M., M.M. Holland, A.J. Weaver and M. Eby, 2001: Simulating the ice-thickness distribution in a coupled climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 2441–2463.

73. Schmittner, A. and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Dependence of multiple climate states on ocean mixing parameters. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1027–1030.

74. Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 2001: The role of ice ocean interactions in the variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Journal of Climate, 14, 656–675.

75. Hillaire-Marcel, C., A. de Vernal, G. Bilodeau and A.J. Weaver, 2001: Absence of deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea during the last interglacial period. Nature, 410, 1073–1077.

76. Yoshimori, M., A.J. Weaver, S.J. Marshall and G.K.C. Clarke, 2001: Glacial termination: Sensitivity to orbital and CO2 forcing in a coupled climate system model. Climate Dynamics, 17, 571-588.

77. McAvaney, B.J., C. Covey, S. Joussaume, V. Kattsov, A. Kitoh, W. Ogana, A.J. Pitman, A.J. Weaver, R.A. Wood, and Z.-C. Zhao, 2001: Model evaluation. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, pp. 471–523.

78. Stone, D.A., A.J. Weaver and R.J. Stouffer, 2001: Projection of climate change onto modes of atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate, 14, 3551–3565.

79. Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz and A.J. Weaver, 2001: The influence of sea ice physics on simulations of climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 19,639–19,655.

80. Saenko, O., and A. J. Weaver, 2001: Importance of wind-driven sea ice motion for the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water in a global climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 4147–4150.

81. McBean, G., A Weaver and N. Roulet, 2001: The Science of Climate Change: What do we know? ISUMA: Canadian Journal of Policy Research, 2(4), 16–25.

82. Weaver, A.J., M. Eby, E. C. Wiebe, C. M. Bitz, P. B. Duffy, T. L. Ewen, A. F. Fanning, M. M. Holland, A. MacFadyen, H. D. Matthews, K. J. Meissner, O. Saenko, A. Schmittner, H. Wang and M. Yoshimori, 2001: The UVic Earth System Climate Model: Model description, climatology and application to past, present and future climates. Atmosphere-Ocean, 39, 361–428.

2002:

83. Yoshimori, M., M.C. Reader, A.J. Weaver and N.A. MacFarlane, 2002: On the causes of glacial inception at 116KaBP. Climate Dynamics, 18, 383–402.

84. Clark, P.U., N.G. Pisias, T.F. Stocker, and A.J. Weaver, 2002: The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change. Nature, 415, 863–869.

85. Schmittner, A., M. Yoshimori and A.J. Weaver, 2002: Instability of glacial climate in a model of the ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere system. Science, 295, 1489–1493.

86. Claussen, M., L. A. Mysak, A. J. Weaver, M. Crucifix, T. Fichefet, M.-F. Loutre, S. L. Weber, J. Alcamo, V.A. Alexeev, A. Berger, R. Calov, A. Ganopolski, H. Goosse, G. Lohmann, F. Lunkeit, I.I. Mokhov, V. Petoukhov, P. Stone and Z. Wang, 2002: Earth system models of intermediate complexity: Closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models. Climate Dynamics, 18, 579–586.

87. Saenko, O., G. M. Flato and A. J. Weaver, 2002: Improved representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. Atmosphere-Ocean, 40, 21–43.

88. Schmittner, A., K.J. Meissner, M. Eby and A. J. Weaver, 2002: Forcing of the deep ocean circulation in simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanography, 17(2), 5:1–5:15, 1015, doi:10.1029/2001PA000633.

89. Stone, D.A., and A.J. Weaver, 2002: Daily maximum and minimum temperature trends in a climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(9), 70:1–70:4, 1356, doi:10.1029/2001GL014556.

90. Meissner, K.J., A. Schmittner, E.C. Wiebe and A.J. Weaver, 2002: Simulations of Heinrich Events in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(14), 16:1–16:3, 1671, doi:10.1029/2001GL013514.

91. McLaughlin, F.A., E. Carmack, R. Macdonald, A.J. Weaver and J. Smith, 2002: The Canada Basin 1989-1995: Upstream events and far-field effects of the Barents Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(C7), 19:1–19:20, 3082, doi:10.1029/2001JC000904.

92. de Vernal, A., C. Hillaire-Marcel, W.R. Peltier and A.J. Weaver, 2002: The structure of the upper water column in the northwest North Atlantic: Modern vs. last glacial maximum conditions. Paleoceanography, 17(4), 2:1–2:15, 1050, doi:10.1029/2001PA000665.

93. Gillett, N.P., F.W. Zwiers, A.J. Weaver, G.C. Hegerl, M.R. Allen and P.A. Stott, 2002: Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(20), 31:1–31:4, 1970, doi:10.1029/2002GL015836.

94. Saenko, O.A., A. Schmittner, and A.J. Weaver, 2002: On the role of wind-driven sea ice motion on ocean ventilation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 32, 3376–3395.

95. Saenko, O.A., J.M. Gregory, A.J. Weaver and M. Eby, 2002: Distinguishing the influence of heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes on ocean circulation and climate. Journal of Climate, 24, 3686–3697.

2003:

96. Matthews, H.D., A.J. Weaver, M. Eby and K.J. Meissner, 2003: Radiative forcing of climate by historical land cover change. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(2), 27:1–27:4, 1055, doi:10.1029/2002GL016098.

97. Saenko, O.A., and A.J. Weaver, 2003: Southern Ocean upwelling and eddies: Sensitivity of the global overturning to the surface density range. Tellus, 55A, 106–111.

98. Weaver, A.J., O. A. Saenko, P.U. Clark, and J. X. Mitrovica, 2003: Meltwater pulse 1A from Antarctica as a trigger of the Bølling-Allerød warm interval. Science, 299, 1709–1713.

99. Hill, K.L., A.J. Weaver, H.J. Freeland and A. Bychkov, 2003: Evidence of change in the Sea of Okhotsk: Implications for the North Pacific. Atmosphere-Ocean, 41, 49–63.

100. Stone, D.A. and A.J. Weaver, 2003: Factors contributing to diurnal temperature range trends in twentieth and twenty-first century simulations of the CCCma coupled model. Climate Dynamics, 20, 435-445.

101. Gillett, N.P., F.W. Zwiers, A.J. Weaver and P.A. Stott, 2003: Detection of human influence on sea level pressure. Nature, 422, 292–294.

102. Schmittner, A., O.A. Saenko, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: Coupling of the hemispheres in observations and simulations of glacial climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews, 22, 659–671.

103. Meissner, K.J., A. Schmittner, A.J. Weaver and J.F. Adkins, 2003: The ventilation of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum — A comparison between simulated and observed radiocarbon ages. Paleoceanography, 18(2), 1:1–1:13, 1023, doi:10.1029/2002PA000762.

104. Saenko, O.A., A.J. Weaver and M.H. England, 2003: A region of enhanced northward Antarctic intermediate water transport in a coupled climate model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 33, 1528–1535.

105. Saenko, O.A., E.C. Wiebe, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: North Atlantic response to the above-normal export of sea-ice from the Arctic. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(C7), 17–1:17–13, 3224, doi:10.1029/2001JC001166.

106. Saenko, O.A., A.J. Weaver, and J.M. Gregory, 2003. On the link between the two modes of the ocean thermohaline circulation and the formation of global-scale water masses. Journal of Climate, 16, 2797–2801.

107. Weaver, A.J., 2003: The science of climate change, Geoscience Canada, 30, 169–187.

108. Lobb, J., A.J. Weaver, E.C. Carmack and R.G. Ingram, 2003: Structure and mixing across an Arctic/Atlantic front in northern Baffin Bay. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(16), 1833, doi:10.129/2003GL017755.

109. Dumas, J.A., G.M. Flato, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of Arctic multi-year sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(18), 1918, doi:10.1029/2003GL017433.

110. Saenko, O.A., A.J. Weaver and A. Schmittner, 2003: Atlantic deep circulation controlled by freshening in the Southern Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(14), 1754, doi: 10.1029/2003GL017681.


In press:

111. Weaver, A.J., 2003: The science of climate change. In: Hard Choices: Climate Change in Canada. Coward, H.G., and A.J. Weaver, Eds. Wilfred Laurier Press, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in press.

112. National Research Council, 2003: Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks, National Academy Press, 107pp, in press.

113. Coward, H.G., and A.J. Weaver, 2003: Hard Choices: Climate Change in Canada. Wilfred Laurier Press, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in press.

114. Gregory, J.M.., O.A. Saenko, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: The role of the Atlantic freshwater balance in the hysteresis of the meridional overturning circulation. Climate Dynamics, in press.

115. Cottet-Puinel, M., A.J. Weaver, C. Hillaire-Marcel, A. de Vernal, P.U. Clark and M. Eby, 2003: Variation of Labrador Sea water formation over the last glacial cycle in a climate model of intermediate complexity. Quaternary Science Reviews, in press.

116. Weaver, A.J., 2003: Concluding remarks. In: Hard Choices: Climate Change in Canada. Coward, H.G., and A.J. Weaver, Eds. Wilfred Laurier Press, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, in press.

117. Ewen, T.L., A.J. Weaver and M. Eby, 2003: Sensitivity of the inorganic ocean carbon cycle to future climate warming in the UVic coupled model. Atmosphere-Ocean, accepted.

118. Meissner, K.J., A.J. Weaver, H.D. Matthews, and P.M. Cox, 2003: The role of land-surface dynamics in glacial inception: A study with the UVic Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, in press.

119. Lewis, J.P., A.J. Weaver, S.T. Johnston and M.Eby, 2003: The Neoproterozoic ‘Snowball Earth’: Dynamic sea ice over a quiescent ocean. Paleoceanography, in press.

120. Ewen, T., A.J. Weaver, and A. Schmittner, 2003: Modelling carbon cycle feedbacks during abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews, in press.

121. Simmons, H.L., S.R. Jayne, L.C. St. Laurent and A.J. Weaver, 2003: Tidally driven mixing in a numerical model of the ocean general circulation. Ocean Modelling, in press.

122. Schmittner, A., O.A. Saenko, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: Response to the comments on: “Coupling of the hemispheres in observations and simulations of glacial climate change” by Peter Huybers. Quaternary Science Reviews, in press.

Submitted:

123. Clark, P.U., A.M. McCabe, A.C. Mix, and A.J. Weaver, 2003: The 19-kyr B.P. meltwater pulse and its global implications. Science, submitted.

124. Weaver, A.J., 2003: The thermohaline circulation in past, present and future global climate change. In: State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges, AGU/IUGG Monograph, submitted.

125. Hickey, H. and A. J. Weaver, 2003: The Southern Ocean as a source region for tropical Atlantic variability. Journal of Climate, submitted.

126. Saenko, O.A., M. Eby and A.J. Weaver, 2003: The effect of sea-ice extent in the North Atlantic on the stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

127. Stouffer, R.J., A.J. Weaver, and M. Eby, 2003: A method for obtaining pre-20th century initial conditions for use in climate change studies. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

128. Matthews, H.D., A.J. Weaver, K.J. Meissner, N.P. Gillett and M. Eby, 2003: Natural and anthropogenic climate change: Incorporating historical land cover change, vegetation dynamics and the global carbon cycle. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

129. Matthews, H.D., A.J. Weaver, and K.J. Meissner, 2003: Terrestrial and carbon cycle dynamics under recent and future climate change. Journal of Climate, submitted.

130. Saenko. O.A., A. Schmittner and A.J. Weaver, 2003: The Atlantic-Pacific seesaw. Science, submitted.

131. Weaver, A.J. and O.A. Saenko, 2003: The thermohaline circulation. In: Encyclopedia of Paleoclimatology and Ancient Environments. Gornitz, V., Ed., Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series, Kluwer Academic Publishers, submitted.





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