Climate Modelling Group
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences


NSERC World Ocean Circulation Experiment Collaborative Special Project

Progress Report and Budget: WOCE Fiscal Year 1994/95

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Principal Investigator:
Dr. Andrew J. Weaver
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
University of Victoria
PO Box 1700
Victoria, British Columbia
CANADA V8W 2Y2

tel: (250) 472-4001
fax: (250) 472-4004
e-mail: weaver@ocean.seos.uvic.ca
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Project Title: Ocean Modelling /Model Development
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The progress report below has been partitioned into subcategories representing the research done by MSc and PhD students and Research Associates working under my supervision. In addition, I have also outlined my own research projects. I have chosen to write this year's progress report in this format as it emphasizes the Training of Highly Qualified Personnel. This progress report and the original WOCE proposal may be viewed on the world wide web at:

http://wikyonos.seos.uvic.ca/projects/WOCE-1995-Progress.html
http://wikyonos.seos.uvic.ca/projects/WOCE-Grant.html

4.1 MSc student

4.1.1 Trudy Wohlleben

Ms. Wohlleben arrived at the University of Victoria in September 1992 on AES Educational leave. After one year of courses she began working on the problem of trying to interrelate observations of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. She successfully defended her thesis in August 1994 and has now moved to the AES office in Edmonton to undertake research on climate variability and its impact upon the Canadian agricultural industry.

In her thesis Ms. Wohlleben examined the statistical relationships between various components of the subpolar North Atlantic air-sea-ice climate system in order to investigate potential processes involved in interdecadal climate variability. It was found that sea surface temperature anomalies concentrated in the Labrador Sea region have a strong impact upon atmospheric sea level pressure anomalies over Greenland, which in turn influence the transport of freshwater and ice anomalies out of the Arctic Ocean, via Fram Strait. These freshwater and ice anomalies are advected around the subpolar gyre into the Labrador Sea affecting convection and the formation of Labrador Sea Water. This has an impact upon the transport of North Atlantic Current water into the subpolar gyre and thus, also upon sea surface temperatures in the region.

An interdecadal climate feedback loop was therefore proposed as an internal source of climate variability within the subpolar North Atlantic. Through the lags associated with the correlations between different climatic components, observed horizontal advection timescales, and the use of Boolean Delay Equation models, the timescale for one cycle of this feedback loop was determined to have a period of about 21 years.

The results of this work ( Wohlleben and Weaver, 1995 ) have recently been accepted for publication in Climate Dynamics. While NSERC/WOCE funds were not explicitly used to pay the salary of Ms. Wohlleben they were used to provide operating support in the form of: publication charges, telephone, fax, xeroxing, computer hardware and software support (both via direct hardware/software acquisition costs and through indirect costs via the salaries to computer systems managers and maintenance contract charges). Ms. Wohlleben will also be presenting the results of this work at the upcoming 29th annual CMOS Congress.

4.2 PhD students

4.2.1 Thierry Reynaud

Dr. Thierry Reynaud received his PhD in 1994 and is now working as a postdoctoral research associate with Dr. Kevin Speer at Institut Francais de Recherche et Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER) in Brest, France. Dr. Reynaud was directly funded off the NSERC/WOCE CSP both through salary and operating costs. He began his PhD in 1990 under the first round of NSERC/WOCE and was jointly supervised by Richard Greatbatch and me.

Dr. Reynaud's PhD research involved the use of archived temperature and salinity data from the Labrador Sea region of the North Atlantic. He developed a new method of objective analysis to yield a high resolution (1/3 degree x 1/3 degree) data set for use in diagnostic studies. The data set was then partitioned into seasons and diagnostic studies were done using a variety of techniques (Bernoulli method - Killworth, 1986; Depth of no motion method; Mellor et al. method - Mellor et al., 1982). Through this research we obtained a high resolution analysis of the circulation of the Labrador Sea.

Two articles have been written from this thesis. In the first of these (Reynaud et al. 1995a) we analysed the climatological mean summer circulation and water mass properties (CWMP) in the Labrador Sea. In the second paper (Reynaud et al. 1995b - written but not yet submitted as Dr. Reynaud is on a WOCE cruise in the South Atlantic), we have extended this analysis to examine interdecadal changes in the CWMP. A final manuscript is being written concerning the seasonal variability of the CWMP.

4.2.2 Tertia Hughes

During the 1994/95 NSERC/WOCE fiscal year Dr. Tertia Hughes completed and successfully defended (March 1, 1995) her PhD thesis. Dr. Hughes was initially funded by NSERC and Tri-Council Eco-Research postgraduate fellowships. During the 1994-95 fiscal year she was directly funded by my WOCE operating grant. Direct funding came in the form of salary support while indirect funding once more came in the form of publication charges, telephone, fax, xeroxing, computer hardware and software support.

Results from the first chapter of her thesis were published last year (Hughes and Weaver, 1994) and discussed in last year's NSERC/WOCE annual report. A second chapter explored the role of the sea surface temperature - evaporation feedback for the ocean's thermohaline circulation; this work has recently been submitted ( Hughes and Weaver, 1995 ). Briefly, a positive feedback is found whereby the overturning circulation warms the high latitudes through advection, increasing the latent heat loss and raising the sea surface salinity, which then feeds back on to the overturning. The magnitude of the time-dependent component of the evaporation is quite small however, which tends to support the use of fixed freshwater fluxes as a good first approximation to air-sea interaction. In agreement with this, two examples with internal variability of the thermohaline circulation on decadal and millennial timescales were studied. The variability was not fundamentally altered under the new feedback compared to control runs under "mixed boundary conditions", although both the period and the duration of the variability were shortened in some cases. Early results from this project were presented at an invited lecture at the Spring Meeting of the AGU in Baltimore, and the completed research will be presented at the CMOS Annual Congress this spring.

The remainder of Dr. Hughes' thesis described the development of a global ocean model with realistic geography and topography. The climatology of the model under annual mean forcing (observed winds, restoring to Levitus surface temperature and salinity) was assessed as the basis for a comparison with the equilibrium circulation under diagnosed heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes from the Canadian Climate Centre 2nd generation atmospheric general circulation model. The pronounced drift of this equilibrium away from the observed global ocean circulation led to the suggestion of a new method of flux correction for use in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. This research will be discussed further in section 4.4 below.

Finally, Dr. Hughes was involved in a collaboration with D. Wright (Bedford Institute) and C. Vreugdenhil (Netherlands) to compare the dynamics of zonally-averaged and three-dimensional ocean circulation models, with the goal of improving the parameterisation of zonal pressure gradients necessary in the former. This work will appear in print shortly (Wright et al., 1995)

4.2.3 Paul Myers

Paul Myers started his PhD in July 1992 and should submit his thesis by this time next year. His salary was paid through a Tri-Council Eco-Research award that will end this summer. In the 1995-96 fiscal year both his direct and indirect costs will be covered from the NSERC/WOCE CSP.

P. Myers' PhD research has been in the area of finite element modelling/model development. The finite element method possesses many advantages over more traditional numerical techniques used to solve systems of differential equations. These advantages include a number of conservation properties and a natural treatment of boundary conditions. The method's piecewise nature makes it useful when dealing with irregular domains, and similarly when using variable horizontal resolution. To take advantage of these properties, a finite element representation of the linearized, steady-state, barotropic potential vorticity equation has been developed. A working version of the barotropic model now exists in both Cartesian and spherical coordinates. Both versions have been rigorously tested against analytic solutions and against existing finite difference models. In all cases, the comparisons are extremely favourable. The description of this model will appear in the June issue of Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology ( Myers and Weaver, 1995 ).

The model was then used to study the separation of the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic. The model's ability to incorporate variable spatial resolution allowed the simulation of the correct latitude of separation for the Gulf Stream with the inclusion of the JEBAR term (Joint Effect of Baroclinicity And Relief). Results suggest that the JEBAR term in three key regions (offshore of the separation point in the path of the main jet, along the slope region of the North Atlantic Bight and in the central Irminger Sea) is crucial in determining the separation point. The transport driven by the bottom pressure torque component of JEBAR dominates the solution, except in the subpolar gyre, and hence is responsible for the separation of the Gulf Stream. Excluding high latitudes (in the deep water formation regions) density variations in the upper 1000 m (thermocline region) of the water column govern the generation of the necessary bottom pressure torque in our model ( Myers et al., 1995 ).

Examination of results from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment Community Modelling Effort (WOCE-CME) indicates that the bottom pressure torque component of JEBAR is underestimated by almost an order of magnitude, when compared to our diagnostic results. The reason for this is unclear, but may be associated with the diffuse nature of the modelled thermocline in the CME as suggested by our model's sensitivity to the density field above 1000 m. In addition, Claus Boening at Kiel University is going to provide us with temperature and salinity fields from the WOCE CME to allow us to analyse their results more deeply.

A global version of this model is now operational. The model correctly handles the cyclical boundary conditions associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Work is presently ongoing to attempt to determine the barotropic circulation, including the JEBAR term, for the global ocean. The next step will then be to look at the effects of interpentadal changes in the density field on the overall circulation.

A time-dependent version of the model has also been developed. This model includes the nonlinear terms and an iterative solver. It is also in the process of being converted to run in spherical coordinates. As a quick test, the model will be applied to the North Atlantic, in an attempt to see what effect the non-linear terms have on the full circulation, including the JEBAR term. It is then hoped to use this model to examine the barotropic circulation in the North Pacific Ocean.

The development of a fully-prognostic, baroclinic, primitive equation ocean model is beyond the scope of Paul Myers' PhD. However, research will continue towards meeting this goal in collaboration with Dr. Rodolfo Bermejo at the Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Madrid, and Dr. Owen Walsh at CERCA, University of Montreal.

4.2.4 Augustus Fanning

Augustus Fanning arrived at the University of Victoria in August 1993 to begin research towards a PhD. He is partially funded from an Atlantic Career Development Award with the remainder of his support (both direct and indirect) coming from the NSERC/WOCE CSP. He has developed a diffusive heat transport energy balance model (EBM), that has been tested in both simplified and global domains. The EBM is loosely based upon the models of Budyko (1969), Sellers (1969), and North (1975). We have extended these models to allow coupling with the GFDL-MOM ocean general circulation model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model, Pacanowski et al., 1993) by allowing latent, sensible and radiative heat transfers between the ocean and atmosphere. In an effort to completely couple the ocean-atmosphere system, a moisture balance equation has also been added to the EBM so that freshwater fluxes can be predicted for the ocean model.

The resultant energy-moisture balance model (EMBM) has been run in a global 2 degree x 2 degree domain with fixed sea surface temperatures ( Fanning and Weaver, 1995 ). Under climatological oceanic conditions, the surface air temperatures, specific humidities and surface fluxes are comparable to direct estimates. As an extension to the climatological forcing case, a simple perturbation experiment was considered in which the 1955-59 pentad was compared to the 1970-74 pentad by driving the model under the respective sea surface temperatures. The model exhibits global, as well as basin-mean temperature changes in the latter pentad comparable to direct estimates (Jones, 1988).

The interpentadal modelled differences are quite robust. This effect was demonstrated by rerunning the model with parameters representative of several different unrealistic climatologies. The resulting interpentadal difference fields change remarkably little even when the background state has changed dramatically. Such a result appears to add convincing support for the use of flux corrections in coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling studies.

A version of the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (EMBM coupled to the GFDL-MOM) has been run in a single-hemisphere (60 degree x 60 degree) basin, driven by zonally uniform wind stress and solar insolation forcing. A series of several experiments of varying horizontal resolution (ranging from 4 degree x 4 degree to 1/4 degree x 1/4 degree) and viscosity have been conducted to assess the effect on the components of the net poleward heat transport. The model integrations are now complete, and we are currently analyzing the relative contributions of the mean and time variant components of the heat transport. These include the effects of the barotropic gyre transport (in the horizontal plane), the meridional overturning transport (in the zonal plane), the baroclinic gyre transport, as well as the eddy and diffusive heat transport components. An article on this work will be written up and submitted to Nature shortly.

In another project, A. Fanning is developing a double-hemisphere model representative of the Atlantic basin. This model incorporates a thermodynamic ice model (Semtner, 1976) (which includes heat insulation as well as brine rejection) into the coupled ocean-atmosphere model. This model will form the basis for a number of future studies. The first concerns whether multiple equilibria exist in an idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Next we will investigate the causes for rapid climate variability during glacial-interglacial transitions, examining the roles of deglacial meltwater forcing as opposed to change in the solar insolation distribution.

4.2.5 Daniel Robitaille

Daniel Robitaille also arrived at the University of Victoria in August 1993 to begin research toward his PhD. He is fully funded off the NSERC/WOCE CSP. D. Robitaille has been using Freon as a tracer to validate ocean models. In particular, he has been using WOCE Freon section data in this validation process. He has now introduced Freon into the GFDL MOM code (Pacanowski et al., 1993) in both idealized one- and two-hemisphere (process-oriented) models of the Atlantic as well as in a global ocean model.

In the first study ( Robitaille and Weaver, 1995 ), three sub-grid scale mixing parameterizations (lateral/vertical; isopycnal/diapycnal; Gent and McWilliams, 1990) were used in a global ocean model in an attempt to determine which yields the best ocean climate. Observations and model Freon 11 distributions in both the North and South Atlantic were used in the model validation. While the isopycnal/diapycnal mixing scheme does improve the deep ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, when compared to results from the traditional lateral/vertical mixing scheme, the Freon 11 distribution is significantly worse due to too much mixing in the southern ocean. The Gent and McWilliams (1990) parameterization, on the other hand, significantly improves the deep ocean potential temperature, salinity and Freon 11 distributions when compared to both of the other schemes. The main improvement comes from a reduction of Freon uptake in the southern ocean where the "bolus" transport cancels the mean advection of tracers and hence causes the Deacon Cell to disappear. These results suggest that the asymmetric response found in CO2 increase experiments, whereby the climate over the southern ocean does not warm as much as in the northern hemisphere, may be an artifact of the particular mixing schemes used.

Dr. Jim McWilliams at UCLA recently visited us to discuss these results. We will continue to interact with him as the work progresses. In addition, Dr. Ray Weiss at Scripps Institute of Oceanography will collaborate on the Freon/model intercomparison as the research progresses.

D. Robitaille is following up this work with a detailed parameter sensitivity study using the three sub-grid scale mixing schemes mentioned above. He will compare the ocean general circulation model results with results from simple scaling analyses of the thermocline equations (in collaboration with Dr. Amit Tandon - see 4.4.4).

Another project has been to use apparent salinities as a restoring surface boundary condition on salinity in ocean general circulation models instead of climatological values. The usefulness of this method is under study using an ocean model of the North Atlantic.

D. Robitaille has also participated in the DFO CRV Ricker Cruise in September, 1994. The cruise was run by Dr. David Welch (Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC) and was designed to collect CTD, and plankton samples in the North Pacific Ocean.

4.3 Visiting PhD students

4.3.1 Geert Lenderink

In November 1994, Geert Lenderink, a PhD student working under the supervision Dr. R. Haarsma at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, visited my research lab for 2 months. During this time he used his convective stability analysis (Lenderink and Haarsma, 1994) to analyse the stability and variability of the thermohaline circulation in the numerical experiments of Weaver et al. (1993). He has since returned to the Netherlands and is continuing to work on this problem. He still occasionally uses my computing resources and is continuing to run the Bryan-Cox ocean model (which he was shown how to set up when he was here).

4.3.2 Thierry Huck

Thierry Huck arrived at UVic on January 1, 1995 and will spend 16 months here on a France/Canada scientific exchange program (in lieu of French military service). His salary is supported off other research grants but his infrastructure and operating support comes from the WOCE CSP. T. Huck was midway through his PhD (under the supervision of Dr. A. Colin de Verdière) at the Université de Brest before he came to Victoria. He is continuing his PhD research here now jointly supervised by Dr. A. Colin de Verdière and me.

In his research T. Huck is investigating the effect of various momentum dissipation parameterizations in thermohaline circulation models using the planetary geostrophic equations. The traditional Laplacian momentum dissipation used presently in most ocean general circulation models is based on a conservation law appropriate for small scale viscous processes. For the large scales considered by ocean general circulation models, it parameterizes the process of barotropic instability better than the process of baroclinic instability. We are trying to determine what the consequences of this choice of momentum parameterization are in terms of the boundary layer structure of the ocean circulation. To this end comparisons will be done with other parameterizations of dissipation (e.g. Rayleigh friction) in both hydrostatic primitive equation models and non-hydrostatic planetary geostrophic models.

A new three-dimensional ocean circulation model has been developed using diagnostic planetary geostrophic dynamics and fully prognostic equations for potential temperature and salinity. Horizontal momentum dissipation is parameterized by linear Rayleigh friction, and different methods are used to solve for the non-hydrostatic boundary layers. The results in idealised geometry are being compared to those obtained using traditional Laplacian dissipation and also using fully prognostic dynamical equations. The comparison is based on identical atmospheric forcing, in order to analyse the effect of only the parameterization change in each run. The structure of the boundary layers and the large-scale circulation will be compared, as well as the thermohaline variability, in order to improve the understanding of the mechanisms involved.

T. Huck, along with D. Robitaille, A. Fanning and A. Tandon attended the recent NATO Advanced Study Institute, Les Houches, France, February 13-24 on decadal climate variability.

4.4 Research Associates

4.4.1 Salil Das

Dr. Salil Das joined my research group in the summer of 1992 and has recently (Jan. 1, 1995) relocated to the Institute of Ocean Sciences to work with Dr. E. Carmack. Dr. Das was working on the development of semi Lagrangian advection algorithms appropriate for use in ocean models. He used the Marotzke et al. (1988) model of the zonally-averaged two-dimensional thermohaline circulation. The model's governing equations were solved under a variety of boundary conditions.

To determine the extent to which the accuracy and efficiency of the calculations depended on the numerical integration scheme, the test problem was solved independently using an explicit finite difference (leap-frog in time, centered difference in space) method and three implicit methods: a finite difference, a finite element and an upwind scheme. Integrations of the model to several equilibria were performed to determine the accuracy, efficiency and stability of each integration scheme as a function of time step. For the same level of accuracy the time step used in the semi-Lagrangian scheme was found to be at least five times greater than that employed in the case of the implicit methods. The time step used in the implicit methods in turn were at least six times greater than those needed in the explicit integration of the governing equations. It was further shown that Dirichlet, Neumann and mixed boundary conditions could be handled efficiently with the semi-Lagrangian method. The semi-Lagrangian method was also applied in the usual three-time level and two-time level interpolating versions as well as in a non-interpolating, three-time level version. The two-time level scheme further doubled the speed of the time integration step for the same level of accuracy, beyond that which was achieved using the three-time level scheme. The non-interpolating scheme did not eliminate the damping introduced by the interpolation. Hence we concluded that the two-time level semi-Lagrangian advection method was best suited for ocean climate studies. These results are detailed in Das and Weaver (1995) .

4.4.2 Benyang Tang

Dr. Benyang Tang joined my research group 2 years ago and has recently decided to leave science and to open his own printing company. Dr. Tang's decision was based on the difficulty of securing a permanent position in Canada (a consequence of demographics). He felt that if he were to make a career change then he should do it while he was still young. Dr. Tang was working on simple analytical and idealized zonally-averaged climate models. He will continue to work in this area in his spare time and I have granted him access to my research facilities.

An interesting phenomenon which I observed in Weaver (1993) was that for different equilibria obtained under normal, 2xCO2, 4xCO2 and 8xCO2 forcing in coupled GCMS (and indeed in the uncoupled Canadian Climate Centre atmospheric GCM), the total planetary heat transport was fairly constant (in a global warming or cooling scenario there was net heat loss or gain by the planetary system but at equilibrium, the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere was similar). This phenomenon was exploited in the coupled atmosphere-ocean box model developed by Tang and Weaver (1995a) . The results of this simple coupled model suggest, as did the uncoupled ocean experiments of Weaver and Hughes (1994) , that if the earth were to warm by a few degrees then we might expect rapid climate variability as seen in the last interglacial period.

In the past year, Dr. Tang has also been working on a two-dimensional model. He is using the model to study the stability of equatorially symmetric circulations. Symmetric circulations were found to be unconditionally unstable by Marotzke et al (1988), but were found to be stable in Saravanan and McWilliams (1995). In an effort to sort out this confusion, Dr. Tang has found that two parameters - the horizontal diffusivity and the relative importance of haline and thermal forcing - determine the stability of the symmetric circulations. Dr. Tang has worked out stability threshold diagrams for both the thermally dominant and the haline dominant symmetric circulations, both of which have distinct stability properties. It was also found that at low resolution, the stability of symmetric circulations depends on whether the number of meridional grid points is odd or even; unconditional instability of a thermally dominant circulation occurs when a grid point is on the equator and horizontal diffusion is absent. The stability of the pole-to-pole circulation in the model is also being studied. These results will be submitted for publication shortly (Tang and Weaver, 1995b).

4.4.3 Tertia Hughes

Upon the completion of her PhD, Dr. Hughes started work as a Research Associate under my supervision and funded off the NSERC/WOCE CSP. In this position she is maintaining and undertaking experiments with the global ocean model developed in her thesis and in collaboration with the Canadian Climate Centre (see section 4.4 below). Specifically, she is carrying out experiments to investigate the importance of the seasonal cycle for the global thermohaline circulation. In addition, she is continuing the work we have been doing on flux corrections in coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

This global ocean model has also been given to Prof. Bill Gough at the University of Toronto, to initiate a collaboration on the influence of spurious cross-isopycnal mixing due to lateral diffusivity in regions of sloping isopycnals (the "Veronis effect"). T. Hughes visited Toronto in March, 1995 for this purpose.

4.4.4 Amit Tandon

Dr. Tandon joined my research group on January 1, 1995 and is funded by a UCAR postdoctoral fellowship in Ocean Modelling. He is jointly supervised by Inez Fung, Chris Garrett and me.

Over the last 2 years I have been working on a detailed scaling analysis of the thermohaline circulation under both Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions. This scaling analysis is being compared with the results of a "converted GFDL general circulation model". That is, the normal GFDL code has been stripped to be purely baroclinic (the barotropic mode is zero as there is no wind forcing, nonlinear terms in the momentum equation, bottom friction or topography. Hence all this code has been removed). Furthermore, the tracer and salinity equations have been combined into one "conservation of potential density" equation so that there is no equation of state. Finally, Dirichlet boundary conditions have been implemented directly instead of using the more normal relaxation boundary condition.

Dr. Tandon is extending this research by more closely analysing boundary layer processes and in particular the importance of the "Veronis effect" mentioned earlier.

4.5 Andrew Weaver

Over the last year I have conducted research in a number of areas. I have been heavily involved in the IPCC Second Scientific Assessment and am a lead author of two Chapters ( Gates et al., 1996; Grassl et al., 1996). The IPCC process is designed to provide policy makers a treatise on our present understanding of climate change and climate variability.

In late 1994 I got together with Ed Boyle (a geochemist) at MIT to write a short piece for Nature (Boyle and Weaver, 1994) concerning multiple equilibria of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and paleoclimatic data from the last glacial maximum.

In a paper submitted to Climate Dynamics in January ( Weaver and Hughes, 1995 ), we showed that the magnitude of the mismatch between ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) fluxes is not as important for climate drift as the difference between OGCM and implied AGCM heat and freshwater transports. Hence a "Minimum Flux Correction" was proposed which is zonally-uniform in each basin and of small magnitude compared to present flux corrections. This minimum flux correction acts only to correct the AGCM implied oceanic transports of heat and freshwater. A slight extension was also proposed to overcome the drift in the surface waters when the minimum flux correction is used. Finally, we showed that the current methods used to determine flux corrections are all essentially equivalent leading to correction fields which are significantly larger than both AGCM and climatological fields over large regions.

Inspired by the success of the Minimum Flux Correction mentioned above, a separate experiment is underway. In this experiment we force the global ocean model with the newly-derived observed heat and freshwater fluxes over the ocean compiled by Da Silva et al. (1994). This fluxes have been tuned to constrain the zonally-integrated transports of both heat and freshwater toward observed estimates. The purpose of this project is to investigate new ways of spinning up OGCMs prior to coupling them with AGCMs.

Another project which is underway is an investigation of the importance of the seasonal cycle for the global thermohaline circulation. Preliminary results under seasonal sea surface temperatures and salinities show an intensification of the North Atlantic overturning circulation by > 3 Sv, which is accompanied by a cooling of the upper ocean and warming of the deep ocean in all three basins of the world ocean (Atlantic, Indian, Pacific). The Antarctic Circumpolar Current also warms significantly, although these changes appear (upon cursory inspection) to be driven by the Mediterranean. A next step will be to permit the winds to also vary seasonally.

I also worked collaboratively with Warren Lee in the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) to develop a high-resolution global ocean model which has now been coupled to the CCC AGCM for the purpose of undertaking climate change/variability forecasts. I have a strong collaboration with the CCC and am the Scientific Leader of their Ocean Modelling effort. We now have a fully coupled atmosphere/ocean/ice model available and we are presently examining ways of reducing the flux correction which must be incorporated.

4.6 References not listed in section 7

Budyko, M.I., 1969: The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the earth. Tellus, 21, 611-619.

da Silva, A. M., C. C. Young and S. Levitus, 1995: Atlas of Surface Marine Data 1994, Volume 1: Algorithms and Procedures. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 7. In press.

Gent, P. R. and J.C. McWilliams, 1990: Isopycnal mixing in ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 20, 150-155.

Jones, P.D., 1988: Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: Recent trends and an update to 1987. J. Climate, 1, 654-660.

Killworth, P.D., 1986: A Bernoulli inverse method for determining the ocean circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 16, 2031-2051.

Lenderink, G., and R.J. Haarsma, 1994: Variability and multiple equilibria of the thermohaline circulation associated with deep-water formation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 24, 1480-1493.

Marotzke, J., P. Welander, and J. Willebrand, 1988: Instability and multiple steady states in a meridional-plane model of the thermohaline circulation. Tellus, 40A, 162-172.

Mellor, G.L., C.R. Mechoso and E. Keto, 1982: A diagnostic calculation of the general circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. Deep-Sea Res., 29, 1171-1192.

North, G.R., 1975: Theory of energy balance climate models. J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 2033-2043.

Pacanowski, R., K. Dixon and A. Rosati, 1993: The GFDL Modular Ocean Model Users Guide, GFDL Ocean Group Technical Report #2, 46pp.

Saravanan, R. and J. C. McWilliams, 1995: Multiple equilibria, natural variability, and climate transitions in an idealized ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, submitted.

Sellers, W.D., 1969: A global climatic model based on the energy balance of the earth-atmosphere system. J. Appl. Meteorol. 8, 392-400.

Semtner, A.J., 1976: A model for the thermodynamic growth of sea ice in numerical investigations of climate. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 6, 379-389.

Weaver, A.J., 1993: The oceans and global warming. Nature, 364, 192-193.

Weaver, A.J., J. Marotzke, P.F. Cummins and E.S. Sarachik, 1993: Stability and variability of the thermohaline circulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 39-60.

4.7 Summary of Milestones:

Milestone---Project #---Description---Anticipated and actual completion dates

1---1 ---North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation---(Dec 1993;Sept 1993)
2---2---Multiple equilibria of the global thermohaline circulation: A process study---(Dec 1993;Sept 1993)
3---3---Development of a global ocean GCM---(Dec 1993;Dec 1993)
4---3---Comparison with Oberhuber and Zhang et al. models---(Dec 1994;in progress1)
5---4---North-south vs east-west pressure gradient parameterization---(Jun 1994;Dec 19942)
6---5---Development of semi-Lagrangian algorithm---(Jul 1993;Jan 1994)
7---5---Testing and comparison of model with and without semi-Lagrangian advection schemes---(Jul 1994;in progress3)
8---5---Development of adjoint semi-Lagrangian code---(Jul 1995;---)
9---5---Testing of adjoint code---(Jun 1996;---)
10---6---Development of finite element model---(Jun 1995;in progress5)
11---6---Testing and comparison with other models---(Jun 1996;in progress)
12---7---Couple energy balance/OGCM---(Jun 1994;Dec 1994)
13---7---Incorporation of ice model---(Dec 1994;Feb 1995)
14---8---OGCM response to CCC forcing---(Dec 1993;April 1994)
15---9---Couple OGCM/simple ice model---(Jun 1994;in progress6)
16---9---Experiments with global model---(Jun 1996;in progress)
17---10---Development of box/simple model for GCM decadal/interdecadal variability---(Jun 1994;Dec 1993)
For comments on this section see section 4.8.

4.8 Discussion of Milestones:

1 Dr. Sheng Zhang, a research associate, will arrive in July 1995 and will examine the intercomparison between our model and his model during the last fiscal year of WOCE. A qualitative comparison was also done between the Oberhuber and GFDL models prior to deciding which model was most suited for coupling with the CCC AGCM. Since the Oberhuber model was so computationally expensive and in a developmental phase it was decided that the GFDL model was more suitable at the present time.

2 This project was indirectly completed through a collaboration between Tertia Hughes and Dan Wright (Wright et al., 1995). We are extending this work as outlined in section 4.4.4.

3 As outlined in the last progress report we have decided not to include the semi-Lagrangian advection algorithms in the Bryan-Cox OGCM. Instead a non-hydrostatic thermocline equation model has been developed with frictional boundary layers (see section 4.3.2). We are currently investigating the implementation of semi-Lagrangian advection algorithms in this model. We must first examine methods for parameterizing convection which occurs on much faster timescales than the timestep in the semi-Lagrangian algorithms.

4 This project has been replaced by the ocean model validation project using WOCE Freon data (see section 4.2.5). This new project is more central to the goals of international WOCE.

5 A global, barotropic model has been developed as outlined in section 4.2.3. This project will continue in collaboration with O. Walsh and R. Bermejo once Paul Myers has received his PhD (see the end of section 4.2.3).

6 We have coupled a simple thermodynamic ice model to the OGCM as outlined in section 4.2.4. In addition, a thermodynamic ice model has been used in the coupled AOGCM used in the CCC (see section 4.5). Since there were problems in specifying boundary conditions above ice, we decided it was best to proceed with the fully coupled models.

Other Relevant Information

The principal investigator, A. Weaver, sat on the United Nations Steering Group for Global Climate Modelling and has recently been asked to sit on the United Nations Climate Variability (CLIVAR) Decadal-Century Numerical Experimentation Group. He is also a lead author for both Chapters 5 and 6 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 1995 Second Scientific Assessment. Furthermore, he is a principal investigator in the NOAA Consortium on the Ocean's Role in Climate; Scientific Leader of the Ocean Circulation Modelling Node of the Canadian Climate Research Network; a Member of Working Group 7 (Modelling the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation) of the North Pacific Marine Sciences Organization (PICES); a member of the Canadian National Climate Research Committee.

Presentations Given by the Principal Investigator

1. Decadal-millennial timescale climate variability: observations and theory 2. "The ocean as a source for rapid interglacial climate fluctuations" 3. "Careers in the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences" 4. "Interdecadal variability in the North Pacific" 5. "Flux corrections in coupled ocean-atmosphere models" 6. "Global ocean modelling" 7. "The ocean's role in climate"

Conference presentations given by others

1. Wohlleben, T.M.H and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Decadal climate variability in the subpolar North Atlantic. Lecture to be presented at 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 30-June 2.

2. Hughes, T.M.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1994: Sea surface temperature - evaporation feedback in an uncoupled model of the ocean's thermohaline circulation. Lecture presented at the 1994 Spring Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Baltimore, Maryland, May 23-27.

3. Hughes, T.M.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: On the importance of the sea surface temperature-evaporation feedback for the ocean's thermohaline circulation. Lecture to be presented at 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 30-June 2.

4. Fanning, A.F. 1994: An atmospheric energy-moisture balance model: Climatology and interpentadal climate change. Lecture presented at the University of Victoria, Victoria, B.C., Canada, December 2.

5. Fanning, A.F. 1994: An atmospheric energy-moisture balance model: Climatology and interpentadal climate change. Lecture presented at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, December 22.

6. Fanning, A.F., and A.J. Weaver, 1995: An atmospheric energy-moisture balance model: Formulation and Climatology. Lecture presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute, Les Houches, France, February 13-24.

7. Fanning, A.F., and A.J. Weaver, 1995: A coupled ocean-atmosphere model for climate studies. Lecture to be presented at the 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 29-June 2.

8. Myers, P.G., 1994: On the cause of Gulf Stream separation in ocean models. Lecture presented at the Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia, November.

9. Myers, P.G., 1994: On the cause of Gulf Stream separation in ocean models. Lecture presented at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, November.

10. Myers, P.G., and A.J. Weaver, 1995: JEBAR, bottom pressure torque and Gulf Stream separation. Lecture to be presented at the 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 29-June 2.

11. Robitaille, D.Y., 1995: Comparison of different mixing schemes in a general ocean circulation model. Lecture presented at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC, Canada, February.

12. Robitaille, D.Y., 1995: Comparison of different mixing schemes in a general ocean circulation model with some Freon-11 data. Lecture presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute, Les Houches, France, February 13-24.

13. Robitaille, D.Y., 1995: On the use of chlorofluorocarbons in ocean modelling. Lecture presented at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, BC, Canada, March.

14. Robitaille, D.Y., and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Sensitivity of an ocean model to sub-grid mixing schemes. Lecture to be presented at the 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 29-June 2.

15. Lee, W.G. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: An OGCM for coupling to the CCCMA AGCM. Lecture to be presented at the 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 29-June 2.

16. LeBlond, P.H., A.J. Weaver and J.R.N. Lazier, 1995: Can runoff regulation in Hudson Bay really affect the climate of the North Atlantic? Lecture to be presented at the 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 29-June 2.

17. Huck, T., A. Colin de Verdière and A.J. Weaver, 1995: The effect of momentum dissipation parameterizations in thermohaline circulation models using the planetary geostrophic equation. Lecture to be presented at the 29th Annual Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Kelowna, British Columbia, May 29-June 2.

18. Huck, T., 1995: On a thermohaline circulation model using planetary geostrophic equations with Rayleigh friction. Lecture presented at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, March.

Media interviews over the last year

Publications and preprints arising

i) Research articles which A. Weaver was involved in and which were funded by the NSERC/WOCE operating grant (since 1994).

1. Weaver, A.J., and. T.M.C. Hughes, 1994: Rapid interglacial climate fluctuations driven by North Atlantic ocean circulation. Nature, 367, 447-450.

2. Hughes, T.M.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1994: Multiple equilibria of an asymmetric two-basin ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 24, 619-637.

3. Weaver, A.J., Aura, S.M., and P.G. Myers, 1994: Interdecadal variability in a coarse resolution North Atlantic model. Journal of Geophysical Research, North Atlantic Deep Water Formation: Observation and Modeling Special Edition, 99, 12,423-12,441.

4. Boyle, E and A.J. Weaver, 1994: Conveying past climates. Nature, 372, 41-42.

5. Reynaud, T.H., Weaver, A.J. and Greatbatch, R.J. 1995a: Summer mean circulation in the western North Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research., 100, 779-816.

6. Myers, P.G. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: A diagnostic barotropic finite element ocean circulation model. Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology, 12, 511-526.

7. Weaver, A.J., 1994: Decadal-millennial internal oceanic variability in coarse resolution ocean general circulation models. In: The Natural Variability of the Climate System on the 10-100 Year Time-Scales, National Academy Press, in press.

8. Tang, B., and A. J. Weaver, 1995a: Climate stability as deduced from an idealized coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Climate Dynamics, in press.

9. Das, S.K. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Semi-Lagrangian advection algorithms for ocean circulation models. Journal of Atmospheric & Oceanic Technology, in press.

10. Wohlleben, T., and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Interdecadal climate variability in the subpolar North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, in press.

11. Grassl, H., F. Giorgi, A. Kattenberg, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, R.J. Stouffer, T. Tokioka, and A.J. Weaver, 1996: Climate models - Projections of future climate. Chapter 6 of the 1995 Second IPCC Scientific Assessment. Ed. Sir J. Houghton, in press.

12. Gates, L., A. Henderson-Sellers, G. Boer, C. Folland, A. Kitoh, B. McAvaney, F. Semazzi, N. Smith, A.J. Weaver and Q.-C. Zeng, 1996: Climate models - validation. Chapter 5 of the 1995 Second IPCC Scientific Assessment. Ed. Sir J. Houghton, in press.

13. Weaver, A.J., and C. Green, 1995: Global climate change/variability: Action or adaptation to increasing greenhouse gases? - Lessons from the past. Science and Public Policy, submitted.

14. Myers, P.G., A.F. Fanning and A.J. Weaver, 1995: JEBAR, bottom pressure torque and Gulf Stream separation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, submitted.

15. Fanning, A.F., and A.J. Weaver, 1995: An atmospheric energy moisture-balance model for use in climate studies. Journal of Geophysical Research, submitted.

16. Weaver, A.J., and T.M.C Hughes, 1995: Flux corrections in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics, submitted.

17. Hughes, T.M.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Sea surface temperature - evaporation feedback and the oceanÕs thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography, submitted.

18. Robitaille, D.Y. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Validation of sub-grid scale mixing schemes using CFCs in a global ocean model. Geophysical Research Letters, submitted.

ii) Refereed Publications (to be submitted shortly)

1. Reynaud, T.H., Weaver, A.J. and R.J. Greatbatch, 1995b: The variability of salinity, temperature and the circulation of the Labrador Sea. To be submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research.

2. Tang, B. and A.J. Weaver, 1995b: Stability and variability of the thermohaline circulation in two-hemisphere ocean models. To be submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research.

Other research articles which were written by people (in bold letters), either fully or partially funded through the NSERC/WOCE operating grant awarded to A. Weaver.

1. Hughes, T.M.C., 1995: Uniqueness and Variability of the Ocean's Thermohaline Circulation. Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 216 pp .

2. Wright, D.G., C.B. Vreugdenhil and T.M.C. Hughes , 1994: Vorticity dynamics and zonally averaged ocean circulation models. J. Phys. Oceanogr. in press.

3. Reynaud, T. , 1994: Dynamics of the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean. PhD Thesis, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, Canada, 267 pp.

4. Wohlleben, T.M.H. , 1995: Decadal Climate Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic. MSc Thesis, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, 168pp.

5. Robitaille, D.Y. , L.A. Mysak, and M.S. Darby, 1995: A box model study of the Greenland Sea, Norwegian Sea, and Arctic Ocean. Clim. Dyn., 11, 51-70.

2. Lardner, R.W. and S.K. Das , 1994: Optimal estimation of eddy viscosity for a quasi-three-dimensional numerical tidal and storm surge model. Int. J. Num. Meth. Fluid., 18, 295-312.

3. Tang, B. , 1995: Periods of linear development of the ENSO cycle and POP forecast experiments. J. Clim., 8, 682-691.

4. Tang, B. , G. Flato and G. Holloway, 1994: A study of Arctic sea ice and sea level pressure using POP and neural network methods. Atmos.-Ocean, 32, 507-529.

iii) Technical reports and other publications in 1994

1. Weaver, A.J., and C. Green, 1994: Global climate change/variability: Action or adaptation to increasing greenhouse gases? - Lessons from the past. C2GCR Report No. 94Š1, McGill University.

2. Reynaud, T.H., Weaver, A.J. and Greatbatch, R.J. 1994: Summer mean circulation in the western North Atlantic. C2GCR Report No. 94Š4, McGill University.

3. Weaver, A.J., 1994: Model instabilities. In: World Climate Research Programme, WOCE Numerical Experimentation Group: Report of the 8th Meeting (NEG-8) and workshop on ocean models for climate research. WOCE Report No. 117/94, WOCE International Project Office, Wormley (pages 9-10).

4. Weaver, A.J., 1994: Long-term oscillations of the ocean. In: World Climate Research Programme, WOCE Numerical Experimentation Group: Report of the 8th Meeting (NEG-8) and workshop on ocean models for climate research. WOCE Report No. 117/94, WOCE International Project Office, Wormley (pages 21-22).

5. LeBlond, P.H., J.R. Lazier and A.J. Weaver, 1994: Can regulation of fresh water runoff in Hudson Bay affect the climate of the North Atlantic? Consulting report prepared by Global Insights Consulting Ltd. for Lavery, de Billy, Hydro Québec, Hydro Québec Great Whale Project.

6. Weaver, A.J., A.F. Fanning, S.K. Das, T.M.C. Hughes, P.G. Myers, R. Outerbridge, D.Y. Robitaille, B. Tang, T. Wohlleben and L. Zhang, 1994: Hot air in Ocean Lab. The Ring, University of Victoria, 20, (14), RB-1, RB-12.

Training of highly qualified personnel

Below I detail the training of highly qualified personnel under separate headings. In section 8.1 I discuss my graduate student supervision. Sections 8.1.1 and 8.1.2 show the students whose committees I sat on and who have graduated and are continuing their research, respectively. In sections 8.1.3 and 8.1.4 I provide details for the students whom I have and am supervising, respectively. In sections 8.1.5 and 8.1.6 I provide details on the graduate students who have spent extended periods of time under my supervision. Finally, in section 8.2, 8.3 and 8.4 I detail my postdoctoral/research associates, computing systems manager and secretarial/accountant supervision.

8.1 Graduate student supervision during last fiscal year

8.1.1 Past:

Year---Student---Degree Program---Type of Supervision

1994---T. Wohlleben---M.Sc. (SEOS)---Supervisor
1994---T. Reynaud---Ph.D. (Meteorology, McGill)---Supervisor
1994---G. Cross---PhD (Chemistry)---Chair of Oral Exam
1994---T. Mudge---M.Sc. (SEOS)---Member
1995---T. Hughes---Ph.D. (Meteorology, McGill)---Supervisor

8.1.2 Current:

Year---Student---Degree Program---Type of Supervision

(1992;now)---P. Myers---Ph.D. (SEOS)---Supervisor
(1992;now)---M. Eek---Ph.D. (SEOS)---Member
(1992;now)---D. Gallacher---M.A. (Economics)---Outside Member
(1993;now)---A. Fanning---Ph.D. (SEOS)---Supervisor
(1993;now)---D. Robitaille---Ph.D. (SEOS)---Supervisor
(1993;now)---E. Tragou---Ph.D. (SEOS)---Member
(1993;now)---V. Polonichko---Ph.D. (SEOS)---Member
(1993;now)---J. Gemmrich---Ph.D. (Physics)---Outside Member
(1993;now)---J. Shen---Ph.D. (Mech. Eng)---Outside Member
(1993;now)---M. Bhargava---Ph.D. (Comp. Sci.)---Outside Member
(1993;now)---K. Zahariev---M.Sc. (SEOS)---Member
(1993;now)---X. Jiang---M.Sc. (SEOS)---Member
(1995;now)---X. Wang---Ph.D. (Comp. Sci.)---Outside Member

8.1.3 Details of Supervision (present):

Paul Myers
A finite element ocean general circulation model, PhD started July 1, 1992, (Tri-Council Eco-Research Doctoral Fellowship)
Daniel Robitaille
Tracer distributions in a global ocean model, started Aug. 1, 1993 PhD
Augustus Fanning
Coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling, started Sept. 1, 1993 PhD (Atlantic Accord Career Development Award)

8.1.4 Details of Supervision (students who graduated during the past year):

Trudy Wohlleben
Decadal climate variability in the subpolar North Atlantic MSc degree conferred: 1994 (AES Educational Leave)
Thierry Reynaud
Dynamics of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean: a diagnostic study, PhD degree conferred: 1994 (FCAR Scholarship)
Tertia Hughes
Uniqueness and variability of the ocean's thermohaline circulation, PhD degree conferred: 1995 (NSERC Scholarship; Tri-Council Eco- Research Doctoral Fellowship)

8.1.5 Other Visiting Doctoral Students Working under my Supervision (present):

Thierry Huck
Visiting from IFREMER, Laboratory of Oceanography (Brest, PhD France) January, 1995 - April, 1996

8.1.8 Other Visiting Doctoral Students Working under my Supervision (past):

Geert Lenderink
Visiting from KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) PhD November, 1994 - December, 1994

8.2 Postdoctoral/Research Associate Supervision during last fiscal year

8.2.1 Postdoctoral/Research Associate Supervision (current):

Dr. Amit Tandon
Decade-to-Century Climate Variability. (UCAR fellowship for Decadal-Centennial Variability of the Oceanic Thermohaline Circulation - CSMP Project) January 1, 1995 - to date
Dr. Tertia Hughes
Ocean-Climate Modelling January 1, 1995 - to date

8.2.2 Postdoctoral/Research Associate Supervision (past):

Dr. Salil Das
Semi-Lagrangian Advection Algorithms in Ocean Models August 1, 1992 - December 31, 1995
Dr. Benyang Tang
Ocean/Climate Modelling July 1, 1993 - March 31, 1995

8.3 Computing Research Associate/Assistant Supervision (present):

Richard Outerbridge
Computer Systems/Software Manager July 1, 1992 - to date
Nicholas Bakalov
Computer/Systems Operator February 1, 1994 - to date
Magdelina Bakalov
Computer/Systems Operator February 1, 1994 - to date
Daniel Robitaille
Assistant Computer/Systems Manager March 1, 1995 - to date

8.4 Secretarial/Accountant Supervision (present):

Lucy Aldridge
Accountant May 1, 1994 - to date
Wanda Lewis
Secretary January 1, 1995 - to date

9. Budget

9.1 Allocated NSERC/WOCE funds for the period from July 1994 to June 1994:


 Operating:  $120,000 

 NSERC Category		07/93-03/94	04/94-05/94	Carryover/use	Proposed new funds 
 a) Salaries			30,000		0		0		40,000
 b) Tech. & Prof. Assistants 	4,000   	1000	    	0		5,000
 c) Postdocs       		6,000		5,000		0		35,000
 d) Grad. students		20,000		4,000		0		30,500
 e) Other			0		0		0		0
 f) Equipment Purchase		25,000          0               0               0
    Equipment Maintenance	9,000		0		0		6,000 
 g) Materials and Supplies	1,000		0		0		2,500
 h) Computing and stats cost	0		0		0		0
 i) Travel			5,000		0		0		4,000
 j) Res. Manag.			0		0		0		0
 k) Others (Page Charges)	10,000		0		0		5,000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL				110,000		10,000		0		128,000

9.2 Details of proposed new budget:

a) Salaries and Stipends
Annual salary for Research Associate (Dr. Sheng Zhang) who will arrive at UVic on July 1, 1995.
b) Technical and Professional Assistants
Partial support ($5,000) for a research associate (R. Outerbridge) who maintains the computer network as well as develops visualization and other software packages. The remainder of his salary will be covered from other grants and other researchers within SEOS.
c) Postdoctoral Fellows
Continued full support for Dr. Tertia Hughes.
d) Graduate Students
Full support ($15,000) for Daniel Robitaille; Partial support ($3,500) for Augustus Fanning; Partial support ($12,000) for Paul Myers whose fellowship runs out this summer.
f) Equipment
(ii) Maintenance Costs: Partial support for the maintenance contract for my IBM workstations (total estimated at $12,000 per year)
g) Materials and Supplies
Toner cartridges, computer paper, magnetic tapes, computer manuals, drafting costs, video cassettes for computer movies, photocopying charges, communication charges, fax etc.
i) Travel
Travel for students, postdoctoral fellow/research associates and A. Weaver to annual national and international conferences (CMOS, AGU, AMS). Four trips a year at $1,000 each to be split amongst the researchers.
k) Others
Publication and reprint charges. The total ($5,000) is significantly less than I have had/will have to pay out during the 1993-94 fiscal year (~$20,000).

9.3 Relationship with other funding sources

I also receive significant research grant funding from the NOAA Consortium on the OceanÕs Role in Climate and the Canadian Climate Research Network. These funds are largely used for salary support of the other individuals working in my group and help support a 1/2 time secretary and an accountant (see section 8.4). Both these other projects are for research on the oceanÕs role in climate and climate variability. NOAA recently announced a major cut to their science funding in response to cuts announced by the US senate and congress. This funding cut may well lead to a substantial reduction in funding to the consortium. In addition, there is a great uncertainty as to future funds for the Canadian Climate Research Network. I am therefore in a perilous funding situation.
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