Predictions of global climate change pose a public policy problem as to what, if anything, should be done to head off the threat created by emissions of greenhouse gases. In answering this question, the most widely accepted approach is to weigh the benefits of a given action against its costs. The comparison of the benefits and costs of actions in preventing/mitigating climate change requires a scientifically based climate change scenario and numerous economic assumptions. However, our present understanding of the climate system is insufficient to give the required information with a high degree of certainty. One of the biggest factors causing this uncertainty involves a lack of understanding of the role of the oceans in climate change and climate variability.
The ocean is well known to have a moderating effect on climate through several mechanisms. It is the buffer which moderates temperature fluctuations during the course of a day, from season to season and even from year to year. One only has to compare the maritime climate of Victoria, British Columbia (48 deg 25'N, 123 deg 22'W - Fig. 1), with average temperature of 4 deg C in January and 16 deg C in July, with the continental climate of Winnipeg, Manitoba (49 deg 54'N, 97 deg 14'W - Fig. 1), with average temperature of -18 deg C in January and 20 deg C in July, to see the moderating effect of the ocean. The ocean also acts as a large-scale conveyor that transports heat from low to high latitudes, reducing latitudinal gradients of temperature. Much of the oceanic heat transport is thought to be associated with the thermohaline circulation (that part of the ocean's circulation which is driven by fluxes of heat and freshwater through the ocean's surface). In the North Atlantic, intense heat loss to the overlying atmosphere causes deep water to be formed in the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian (GIN) Seas. These sinking regions are fed by warm, saline waters brought by the thermohaline circulation from lower latitudes. No such deep sinking exists in the Pacific. Again, if one compares the climates of Bodo, Norway (67 deg 17'N, 14 deg 25'E - Fig. 1), with average January temperature of -2 deg C and average July temperature of 14 deg C, to that of Nome, Alaska (64 deg 30'N, 165 deg 26'W — Fig. 1), with average January temperature of -15 deg C and average July temperature of 10 deg C (both of which are at similar latitudes and on the western flanks of continental land masses), one directly sees the impact of the poleward heat transport of the thermohaline circulation. The ocean can also regulate climate through its ability to store both anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases.
The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) was developed to address these concerns. WOCE will assess and model the heat and water fluxes by the world's oceans, and lay the groundwork for long-term monitoring. WOCE is focused on the physical role of the ocean in affecting climate on timescales of decades. The role of the ocean in the carbon cycle is the focus of another international collaborative program - the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS).
In recent years, the analysis of climatic data sets have documented substantial variability on the decadal to interdecadal timescale. For example, global surface air temperatures (Ghil and Vautard, 1991), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Kushnir, 1993), West African rainfall and the landfall of intense hurricanes on the US coast (Gray, 1990), formation of the deep waters of the North Atlantic (Lazier, 1980; Schlosser et al., 1991), temperature and salinity characteristics and circulation of the North Atlantic (Roemmich and Wunsch, 1984; Dickson et al., 1988; Levitus, 1989a,b,c; Levitus, 1990; Greatbatch et al., 1991), Arctic sea ice extent (Mysak and Manak, 1989; Mysak et al., 1990), runoff from Eurasia (Cattle, 1985; Ikeda, 1990), global sea level pressure (Krishnamurti et al., 1986), all exhibit signals of decadal/interdecadal timescale. Studies using the instrumental data record are restricted to relatively short time series. Proxy climate data extends the record considerably. For example, Hibler and Johnsen (1979) used measurements of oxygen isotope ratios from an ice core to obtain a proxy air temperature record for Greenland spanning the years 1244 to 1971. This record exhibits a 20 year oscillation.
Researchers have postulated that the source of such decadal scale variability may well lie within the ocean. Many of the ocean observations further suggest that the ocean's thermohaline circulation plays a significant role; particularly the component associated with North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Indeed, this hypothesis was originally put forward by Bjerknes (1964) in his attempt to explain decadal/interdecadal changes in the SST of the North Atlantic (see Bryan and Stouffer, 1991 for a more complete discussion of Bjerknes, 1964). The Canadian oceanographic, meteorological and climate research community has considerable expertise, history and interest in the North Atlantic, especially the deep water formation regions of the subpolar gyre. For these reasons, we have decided that the overall scientific objective for the third phase of Canadian WOCE is:
The scientific objective outlined above can be further divided into four sub-objectives:
Parameterization constraints have been sought through process studies of convection and mixing, through model sensitivity studies and through integration of models and observations. The first two approaches were productively employed in previous phases of Canadian WOCE and should continue to provide insight. A powerful new way of constraining parameterizations relates back to Count Rumford's reasoning. It relies on the comparison of observed and predicted water mass inventories and geographical patterns. An advantage of inventory analysis is that it involves lumping data into histogram categories, with the result being a rejection of noise and the gain of statistical reliability. Because water mass inventories are controlled by a competition between air-sea fluxes and interior mixing, inventory analysis allows a back-calculation of air-sea fluxes in terms of interior mixing (Walin, 1982). An early success of the technique was the explanation of the relative volume and properties of water masses created by wintertime convection in sub-tropical regions (Speer and Tziperman, 1992). Extension to the water masses involved in global overturning will address a central goal in the international WOCE program, and is a thread that runs through many of the Canadian contributions described here.
Another prospect is that the averaging aspect of inventory analysis will yield resolvable signals of hydrographic variability over decadal timescales, allowing inference of changes in the mean climatic state. Finally, trustworthy constraints on surface fluxes should guide formulations of surface boundary conditions for heat and water fluxes, which are thought to be important in controlling the stability of thermohaline overturning.
Water masses undergo considerable changes in their volume and characteristics on decadal time scales (see also section 1.5). For example, in recent years, Labrador Sea water has been fresher and colder than ever previously observed (Lazier, personal communication). Integrating observations and models is a key issue in WOCE, and can provide a much greater wealth of information than can be obtained from observations alone. Data assimilation studies are included in this proposal. Such studies attempt to reconstruct climate change in the North Atlantic over recent decades, and hopefully, shed light on the important mechanisms.
Advection can be either directly measured, diagnostically determined from tracer fields or prognostically calculated using dynamic ocean models. More observations and higher resolution models are required to gain a better understanding of the circulation (see section 2.1). The mixing of water masses formed in the North Atlantic basins (Labrador and GIN Seas) with waters originating elsewhere is an important feature of water mass evolution. A number of schemes exist in numerical models to represent this mixing and these can be validated using tracer and hydrographic data.
Convection in the open ocean as a result of atmospheric forcing is recognized as the major source of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. These episodic events are difficult to observe and at present are crudely represented in numerical models. Within the Labrador and GIN Seas, little is known about the atmospheric processes that are responsible for fluxes of heat and moisture. The application of physically realistic atmospheric forcing fields may substantially improve our understanding of the role of deep convection in the thermohaline circulation of the world ocean and thereby improve the simulation of water mass properties. In addition, changes in the sea ice extent over the shelves may effect the air/sea fluxes over the deep convection regions offshore. Movement of sea ice and low salinity waters from the shelf to the offshore may also be a significant source of buoyancy to the convection regions and hence may cause interannual changes in water mass formation. Hence the shelf circulation and shelf/ocean exchange mechanisms are an important part of these investigations.
The Greenland and Labrador Currents flow southward along the shelf edge at the western boundaries of the subpolar gyre (see Fig. 4). These currents transport continental runoff and cold, low salinity waters from the Arctic Ocean. Lazier and Wright (1993) show that the Labrador Current core is centred over the 1000 metre isobath and that its baroclinic transport is 4E+6 m3/s, whereas its the barotropic transport is 7E+6 m3/s. Much of its seasonal variability is believed to arise from the seasonal variation of steric height on the Labrador shelf. Numerous difficulties exist in the numerical modelling of boundary currents and in particular whether and where separation from the coast occurs (e.g., Gan et al., 1995; Myers et al., 1995).
It is not certain what happens when the East Greenland Current reaches Cape Farewell, though little of the ice carried southward by this current turns and flows northward along west Greenland. The waters over the West Greenland shelves are warmer and saltier than those off East Greenland. Smith et al (1937) attributed this change to mixing of the offshore waters from the Irminger Sea with the East Greenland Current waters at Cape Farewell. This may be so; however, there is also a pool of low salinity surface water found directly south of Cape Farewell in the centre of the subpolar gyre (Clarke, 1984, Reynaud et al., 1995). The source of this water is not discussed in any of the conceptual models of the circulation in this region.
A combination of wind and buoyancy driving conspire to complicate even a laminar, steady state description of the dynamics governing these flows. The problem is further complicated by strong seasonal and interannual variability in the forcing. Also unresolved is the role of transient eddies, which probably play an important role in determining the mean circulation. For example, eddy-induced form drag between the surface mixed layer and the thermocline must work together with the lateral eddy fluxes of heat and salt such that the time mean flow in the mixed layer satisfies constraints imposed by the angular momentum and heat budgets.
The overflows of the various components of North Atlantic Deep Water across the Shetland-Faroe-Iceland-Greenland ridge system feed a set of bottom currents that flow in a cyclonic sense along the continental slopes and flanks of the mid-ocean ridges (McCartney, 1992). These waters eventually enter the rest of the North Atlantic along the continental rise to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The overflows exit the GIN Seas with transports of 1-3E+6 m3/s. Entrainment as these flows descend toward their equilibrium depths increases this transport to 12-15E+6 m3/s (Figs. 6, 7) by the time Cape Farewell is reached (Clarke, 1984, McCartney, 1992). As one moves further downstream, the waters in these bottom boundary currents gradually become warmer. There are also suggestions that there may be closed recirculations of the abyssal waters within particular basins related to particular bathymetric features.
Not all decadal scale variability appears in the North Atlantic; nor is variability in North Atlantic Deep water formation the only possible forcing mechanism. Recent hypotheses suggest that decadal variability in the Pacific may be either linked to changes in the El Niño signal in the equatorial Pacific (Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994) or to midlatitude air-sea instabilities (Latif and Barnett, 1994). It is not clear whether similar mechanisms exist in the Atlantic or whether there is a relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic modes of variability. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that decadal to interdecadal variability of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic is a robust feature of the climate of the North Atlantic (e.g., Deser and Blackmon, 1993; Kushnir, 1994; Delworth et al., 1993 - see also Fig. 8).
Interdecadal variability has also been found in ocean models run under constant flux boundary conditions. For example, Greatbatch and Zhang (1995) describe an oscillation with many features like that found in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (GFDL) fully-coupled ocean atmosphere model (Delworth et al., 1993). Winton (1995) has pointed out the possible importance of boundary waves in models that exhibit decadal-interdecadal variability. The role of boundary waves, for both constant flux and mixed boundary condition oscillations, has since been confirmed by Greatbatch and Peterson (personal communication). The inadequate resolution of the coastal wave guide in current climate models indicates the need for higher resolution studies to test the robustness of interdecadal variability in models. High resolution models are planned as part of this proposal (see section 2.1), and will be used to address this issue.
The ocean modelling community has often used restoring boundary conditions where the surface temperatures and salinities in an ocean model are relaxed, with a specified timescale, to some climatological values. Another choice are the mixed boundary conditions mentioned above. Sea surface temperature anomalies, regardless of their scale, are strongly damped under restoring boundary conditions. In reality, the damping time should depend on the scale of the anomaly since latent and sensible heat loss are inefficient mechanisms for the removal of large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies. This follows since heat lost over one part of the ocean must be advected by the atmospheric winds away from the anomaly for it to be effectively removed. Therefore, as pointed out by Bretherton (1982), in the limit of a global scale anomaly radiational damping (long timescale) is the only mechanism for its removal.
These ideas have been utilized in the development of a number of improved parameterizations of the thermal surface boundary condition (e.g., Zhang et al., 1993; Mikolajewicz and Maier-Reimer, 1994; Rahmstorf and Willebrand, 1994; Seager et al., 1994). A cautionary note should be added here regarding the variability found in ocean GCMs under mixed boundary conditions. It is evident from these new surface boundary condition parameterizations that much of the variability is either damped or modified when more realistic surface boundary conditions are used. One should therefore continue to view early results with some caution until they are verified with fully-coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models. This is currently a very active area of research which is being investigated by many groups internationally.
It is evident from the preceding discussion that in order to obtain a better understanding of natural climate variability on the decadal to interdecadal timescale, more realistic coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models must be used. The knowledge gained from the uncoupled ocean models under a variety of boundary conditions of increasing sophistication, and using increasing resolution, will be crucial to understanding the variability found in the coupled system.
The Canadian contribution to WOCE will focus on the North Atlantic, arguably the best-observed ocean and certainly one of the most active parts of the thermohaline circulation. The team will comprise many of Canada's best ocean scientists drawn from both Canadian Universities and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans. It will bring together observationalists, theoreticians and numerical modellers in a highly-intensive and focused research programme. The following approaches will be adopted:
The Community Modelling efforts will focus around the high-resolution regional North Atlantic model which will be developed by Drs. D. Wright and A. Clarke at BIO, D. Kelley and B. Ruddick at Dalhousie University and A. Weaver at the University of Victoria (section 2.1). In addition, Dr. A. Weaver will provide and maintain a global ocean model developed in collaboration with the Atmospheric Environment Service (see section 2.2). Funding for the support of these two community modelling efforts is requested from AES (see section 5).
The low-order climate model developed by Drs. D. Wright (at BIO) and T. Stocker (now at the University of Bern) will also be made available to all participants in WOCE-III. The model is quite general and can be configured with various degrees of complexity, ranging from a very simple Stommel-style ocean-only model to a fully coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The ocean component allows for either the simple approach taken by Wright and Stocker (1991) or the more dynamically consistent approach of Wright, Vreugdenhil and Hughes (1995). The atmospheric component is presently a 1-dimensional (north-south) Energy Balance Model (see Stocker et al., 1992) but it is being extended to account for longitudinal variations that are consistent with the basin scale resolution of the ocean component. The model also includes a thermodynamic sea-ice component and a full suite of tracers, including colour tracers, ideal age tracers, radioactively decaying tracers and an inorganic carbon component.
The availability of the computationally efficient low-order climate model will be extremely useful for the examination of climate processes and feedbacks on timescales of a decade or greater. Furthermore, parallel experiments conducted with the low-order climate model will aid in the understanding of the results obtained from the more complicated coupled models detailed in the attached proposals.
Continued development of this low-order model is already funded under the NSERC/AES Collaborative Special Project "Climate System History and Dynamics" and no additional funding is being requested under the present project. A preliminary user manual is available as an introduction to the model and will be provided, along with the code, to WOCE-III researchers.
The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation is thought to be integrally connected to all the world oceans (Fig. 3). The coarse version of the global model will therefore be used as an experimental laboratory to examine the global consequences of processes operating in the North Atlantic. This global modelling facility will be offered by Dr. Weaver as a CNC WOCE community model in order to avoid the unnecessary duplication of effort in creating additional models by other WOCE Principal Investigators. Dr. Weaver will operate this facility at the University of Victoria and will ask a Scientific Computing Research Associate to undertake the global model simulations for CNC WOCE users. This global ocean model has recently been given to Prof. Bill Gough at the University of Toronto (a prospective WOCE-III PI), to initiate a collaboration on the influence of spurious cross-isopycnal mixing due to lateral diffusivity in regions of sloping isopycnals (the "Veronis effect"). Funding for this part of the proposal is being sought from the Canadian Climate Research Network, through the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (see section 5).
"to focus science research on understanding the complex interrelationships of climate change and ocean ecosystem behaviour so that we can make informed decisions about resource management" (page 46)The Report further notes that Canadian scientists are major contributors to programs such as the WCRP (WOCE and CLIVAR) (page 36) and recommends the continuation of Canadian participation in international science activities (page 51).
A number of WOCE-III researchers are already involved in the above international programs. Dr. Allyn Clarke is a member and vice-chair of the Joint Scientific Committee of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and is past chair of the Scientific Steering Group for WOCE. Dr. J. Lazier was a member of WOCE Core Project 3 working group on the North Atlantic, while Dr. F. Dobson is a member and co-chair of the WOCE/CLIVAR XBT planning committee. Dr. Lazier, is also a co-PI (with. Dr. P. Rhines at the University of Washington) of a project funded by the NOAA ACCP, while Drs. Greatbatch and Weaver are also involved with the NOAA ACCP program as invited speakers at the annual NOAA ACCP PI meetings. In addition, Dr. B. Ruddick and N. Oakey were co-PIs on NATRE, one of the main process experiments carried out in the North Atlantic. Dr. N. Oakey was also a PI (with Dr. D. Hebert at the University of Rhode Island) in a US GLOBEC study on ocean mixing on Georges Bank.
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) has recently developed a Climate System Modeling Program (CSMP) Project on Decadal-Centennial Variability of the Oceanic Thermohaline Circulation, through funding from the US National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy. Dr. Weaver is a member of this project and is actively involved in its progress. As part of this CSMP, Dr. Weaver is acting as a co-host (with Drs. I. Fung and C. Garrett) of a UCAR CSMP funded postdoctoral fellow (Dr. A. Tandon).
The US Office of Naval Research has recently developed an Accelerated Research Initiative (ARI) on Convective Overturning Processes. This program was designed to investigate how dense water, formed at the surface through surface buoyancy loss to the atmosphere, penetrates the interior of the ocean and reestablishes a stable stratification. Dr. K. Moore is a PI on the Deep Convection in the Labrador Sea Experiment of this ARI. He will be able to provide important linkages between WOCE-III and the ARI.
The World Climate Research Program recently approved the establishment of a major new fifteen year international program on Climate Variability (CLIVAR). This program is designed to study climate variability and predictability and the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing. Our WOCE-III project is well linked in with the following specific objective taken from the CLIVAR Science Plan:
Internationally, WOCE will phase out by the turn of the century and be replaced by the CLIVAR initiative. WOCE-III has recognized this international thrust and hence this will be the last Collaborative Special Project proposal submitted to NSERC for the support of Canadian Participation in WOCE.
Within Canada, Dr. C. Lin sits on the Canadian Committee for Land Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone, an IGBP program, Dr. Ruddick sits on the DFO National Climate Committee while Dr. A. Weaver sits on the Canadian National Committee for Climate Research. In addition, Dr. Weaver is a member of the North Pacific Marine Sciences Organization (PICES) - Working Group 7: Modelling the Subarctic North Pacific Circulation.
Box 1 - Focus and Goals of the Major Research Programs
THE CONTEMPORARY SYSTEM PROGRAMS
WORLD OCEAN CIRCULATION EXPERIMENT (WOCE)
Focus: Studies of the surface and subsurface circulation of the global ocean.
Goal: To understand ocean circulation well enough to model its present state, predict its future state, and predict feedback between climate change and ocean circulation.
GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM (GOOS)
Focus: Observations needed for prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and detection of global change due to greenhouse warming.
Goal: To provide the oceanic component of the Global Climate Observing System.
TROPICAL OCEAN-GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE (TOGA) PROGRAM
Focus: Studies describing the interactions between the tropical oceans and the global atmosphere, especially the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Goal: To model the ocean-atmosphere system for the purpose of predicting its variations.
JOINT GLOBAL OCEAN FLUX STUDY (JGOFS)
Focus: Studies investigating the role of marine organisms and chemistry in modulating global climate change.
Goal: To gain a better understanding of how carbon dioxide is exchanged between the atmosphere and the surface ocean and how carbon is transferred to the deep sea.
GLOBAL OCEAN ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS (GLOBEC) PROGRAM
Focus: Studies elucidating how changing climate alters the physical environment of the ocean and how this in turn affects marine animals, especially zooplankton and fish.
Goal: To predict the effects of changes in the global environment on the abundance, variation in abundance, and production of marine animals.
ATLANTIC CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM (ACCP)
Focus: A combination of studies utilizing historical data, modeling, and direct observation and monitoring of middle and high latitudes of the North Atlantic.
Goal: To understand air-sea interactions between the Atlantic Ocean and the global atmosphere.
ACOUSTIC THERMOMETRY OF OCEAN CLIMATE (ATOC) PROJECT
Focus: Acoustic propagation studies measuring the speed of sound along long distance undersea paths.
Goal: To characterize warming trends in the ocean on global scales.
GLOBAL OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE-LAND-SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE PREDICTION (GOALS) PROGRAM
Focus: Studies investigating the variations in sea-surface temperature, soil moisture, sea ice, and snow and the processes that control these conditions.
Goal: To gain a better understanding of global climate change variability on seasonal to interannual time scales for the purpose of predicting this variability.
LAND-OCEAN INTERACTIONS IN THE COASTAL ZONE (LOICZ) PROGRAM
Focus: Studies of fluxes in the coastal zone, how changes in the coastal zone alter the fluxes, and how they will affect the global carbon cycle and trace gas composition of the atmosphere.
Goal: To understand the impacts from changes in climate, sea level, land use, and ecosystem functioning for use in the creation of long-term, sustainable policies for coastal management.
ARCTIC SYSTEMS SCIENCE (ARCSS) PROGRAM
Focus: Paleoenvironmental multidisciplinary studies to address the physical, chemical, biological, and social processes of the Arctic system.
Goal: To understand the processes of the Arctic system in order to predict environmental change on decade-to-century time scales.
THE GEOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE PROGRAMS
OCEAN DRILLING PROGRAM (ODP)
Focus: Collection and analysis of deep-sea cores from around the world to help reconstruct the paleoceanographic record of past climatic and oceanic conditions.
Goal: To reconstruct the Earth's paleoceanography and more importantly to begin to understand the mechanisms that drive changes in climate and oceanic conditions.
RIDGE INTER-DISCIPLINARY GLOBAL EXPERIMENTS (RIDGE)
Focus: Integrated observational, experimental and theoretical studies to determine the primary processes that have shaped the evolution of our planet, and the long-term temporal variations that may have modified the past climate of Earth.
Goal: To understand the causes and predict the consequences of physical, chemical, and biological fluxes within the global spreading center system.
THE GLOBAL CHANGE AND CLIMATE HISTORY PROGRAM OF THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Focus: Paleoclimate and current climate processes research addressing environmental change related to increasing human activities.
Goal: To provide relevant information on global climate change to the government and the research communities.
MARINE ASPECTS OF EARTH SYSTEM HISTORY (MESH)
Focus: Studies of the paleoceanographic record to address numerous research themes including ocean geochemical and climate change and climate sensitivity and variability.
Goal: To determine the sensitivity of the climate system to natural changes in solar radiation.
Box 2 - Major WOCE Accomplishments
1)- Initiation of global-scale in situ measurements of mid-depth circulation following the successful development and testing of free-drifting ALACE floats and advances in float technology
2)- Determination of full-depth currents in the equatorial Pacific region by use of lowered Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs).
3)- Direct long-term measurements of the variability in formation rate and transport of North Atlantic Deep Water in the North Atlantic Ocean.
4)- The most complete and accurate description of water masses in the Pacific and South Atlantic oceans as a result of the WOCE Hydrographic Program.
5)- Initiation of measurements to provide the first global inventories of chlorofluorocarbons, helium, tritium, and carbon dioxide.
6)- New estimates of the vertical diapycnal diffusivity during both summer and winter in the central North Atlantic.
7)- An intensive study of the process of subduction in the upper ocean thermocline.
8)- Improved air-sea flux estimates in models resulting from, for example, the inclusion of satellite surface wind-speed data and real-time ice cover data, better stratus cloud parameterization, and the use of an improved spectral statistical interpolation objective analysis system.
9)- New estimates of the meridional heat flux across mid-latitudes in the South Pacific and North and South Atlantic, suggesting an imbalance in heat transport between the northern and southern hemispheres.
10)- Improved fine-scale global ocean models with more realistic physics and bathymetry, driven by real data rather than climatology.
11)- Establishment of data assembly centers and their associated quality control methods as a basis for better data management and data sharing.
12)- Contributions to the analysis of satellite-altimeter data from the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/Poseidon) and the European Remote Sensing (ERS-1) satellite missions, leading to an estimated orbit uncertainty of 8-9 cm with a geographically correlated component of better than 3 cm and to an improved surface wind field from scatterometer measurements.
13)- Establishment of a facility for measuring radiocarbon in small volumes of sea water and other matrices using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry.
14)- Development of a multiple XBT launcher for high-resolution XBT deployments on Voluntary Observing Ships.
Box 3 - Future Plans for WOCE
1)- Completion of an integrated study of the Indian Ocean beginning in late 1994.
2)- Enlargement of global drifter and float data sets and improved measurements of deep flow from current meter deployments.
3)- Complete process studies in the Atlantic Ocean.
4)- Launching of the advanced Earth Observing Satellite (NSCATT/ADEOS) plus other satellites to improve global wind field determination.
5)- Continued improvements in modeling, including methods for data assimilation.
6)- Implementation of a major synthesis phase from 1998 through about 2005 to extract the maximum information from the WOCE data sets.
7)- Transfer of pertinent information to those planning of the ocean component of the GCOS.
8)- Transfer of selected long-term measurements (e.g., upper ocean temperature and salinity from VOSs) to a follow-on global change research program or to the GOOS.
The direct funding request for CCME1 is detailed in Table 1 below. For the 1995-96, 1996-97 and 1997-98 fiscal years we request a total of $270,000, $120,000 and $120,000, respectively. These funds would be directly transferred to Dr. D. Wright, an adjunct professor at Dalhousie University.
Fiscal Funding Justification Year Request 1995-96 $170,000 Purchase of a high speed IBM SP2 parallel processor or equivalent machine $50,000 Full Support for one Scientific Computing Research Associate $40,000 Full Support for one Postdoctoral Research Associate $10,000 Operating and media costs and travel 1996-97 $50,000 Full Support for one Scientific Computing Research Associate $40,000 Full Support for one Postdoctoral Research Associate $20,000 Partial Support for one Postdoctoral Research Associate $10,000 Operating and media costs and travel costs 1997-98 $50,000 Full Support for one Scientific Computing Research Associate $40,000 Full Support for one Postdoctoral Research Associate $20,000 Partial Support for one Postdoctoral Research Associate $10,000 Operating and media costs and travel costs
The direct funding request for CCME2 is detailed in Table 2 below. Dr. Weaver currently receives $25,000 per year in infrastructure support (#11 CICS - Global Oceans) which assists him in actively collaborating with the AES to develop and run coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice general circulation models. We are applying for an extension of this contract (#11 CICS - Global Oceans) and an additional $40,000 in each of the 1995-96, 1996-97 and 1997-98 fiscal years. These funds would be directly transferred to Dr. A. Weaver at the University of Victoria and are independent of his attached research grant proposal.
Fiscal Funding Justification Year Request 1995-96 $30,000 Partial support for one Scientific Computing Research Associate $10,000 Operating and media costs $25,000 Continuation of #11 CICS — Global Oceans contract for infrastructure support 1996-97 $30,000 Partial support for one Scientific Computing Research Associate $10,000 Operating and media costs $25,000 Continuation of #11 CICS — Global Oceans contract for infrastructure support 1997-98 $30,000 Partial support for one Scientific Computing Research Associate $10,000 Operating and media costs $25,000 Continuation of #11 CICS — Global Oceans contract for infrastructure support
The present CNC WOCE committee will steer the formation of the next proposal but will then reform to be composed primarily of Principal Investigators (PIs). A small independent Screening Committee will be formed to conduct the scientific reviews of the proposals. This Screening Committee will only exist through the summer of 1995. Their primary task will be to generate scientific reviews of the proposals. At their dissolution, they will prepare a report summarising the reviews and suggest names for international experts to sit on the Scientific Advisory Committee (discussed below). The PIs will also be asked to suggest names of scientists who should sit on the Scientific Advisory Committee.
The Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) will be made up of international scientists to provide input and reviews on the state and progress of the Canadian WOCE science program. The SAC will be particularly helpful in assessing the progress of the science throughout the life of the project. Members of the SAC will be invited to the annual workshops of WOCE which will be held for all investigators in the program. The first annual report of WOCE will not be peer reviewed, but will be sent from CNC WOCE to NSERC, the Canadian National Committee for Climate Research (CNCRC) and the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies (CICS). It is felt that there would not be enough progress made to warrant an international peer review at the end of the first year. Reports in following years will be sent to the Scientific Advisory Committee whose reviews will be attached and sent to NSERC, CNCRC and CICS together with the annual reports themselves.
After the initial cycle of proposal peer review and funding authorization, CNC WOCE will be restructured to represent the PIs. The role of the revised CNC WOCE will be to: a)- organize an annual workshop for all investigators; b)- request and organize annual reports on the progress of science; c)- determine the funding levels of projects. From the perspective of the funding agencies (NSERC, DFO, AES/CICS), CNC WOCE serves to make sure the program stays on track. Thus the committee is expected to respond to any major problems that come up and to adjust the program and funding levels appropriately. From the perspective of the scientists, the committee serves to organize the workshops, stimulate communication and to assure the funding agencies that excellent and timely science is being accomplished.
CNC-WOCE is also the governing body for the WOCE secretariat, which reports annually to the WOCE International Project Office, and to the various overview bodies and committees (DFO National Climate Committee, NSERC, the Research Committee of the Canadian Climate Board, CNC-SCOR, CNC-WCRP, CGCP).